We publish no single base value for Airbnb. Our valuation methods put it between $185.48 and $273.07 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $273.07 | +50.8% | free cash flow $5.02bn, growth 16.86% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.48%; plus net cash $17.06 a share; stress floor $140.12 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $185.48 | +2.4% | earnings per share $5.57 valued at 34.15× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: the filing discloses one operating segment, and one business summed is an earnings multiple with extra steps, not a second opinion |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.26 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.27) |
| Peer beta | 1.39 (median of 7 S&P 500 Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.28 (84% own, 16% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.19 (0.67 × 1.28 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.48% |
Free cash flow grows 16.86% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.02bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 16.86% | $5.87bn | 0.9051 | $5.31bn |
| Year 2 | 16.86% | $6.85bn | 0.8192 | $5.61bn |
| Year 3 | 16.86% | $8.01bn | 0.7415 | $5.94bn |
| Year 4 | 16.86% | $9.36bn | 0.6711 | $6.28bn |
| Year 5 | 16.86% | $10.94bn | 0.6074 | $6.64bn |
| Year 6 | 14.55% | $12.53bn | 0.5498 | $6.89bn |
| Year 7 | 12.24% | $14.06bn | 0.4976 | $7.00bn |
| Year 8 | 9.93% | $15.46bn | 0.4504 | $6.96bn |
| Year 9 | 7.62% | $16.64bn | 0.4076 | $6.78bn |
| Year 10 | 5.31% | $17.52bn | 0.3689 | $6.46bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.48% − 3%) | $241.11bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $88.96bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $63.88bn |
| Total present value | $152.84bn |
| Shares outstanding | 597.00m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $256.01 |
| Plus net cash per share | $17.06 |
| Value per share | $273.07 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 11.86% | Growth 16.86% | Growth 21.86% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.48% | $242.45 | $318.15 | $417.20 |
| 10.48% | — | $273.07 | $355.55 |
| 11.48% | — | $238.86 | $308.85 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.26 | 10.80% | $261.32 |
| Peer beta | 1.39 | 11.38% | $241.90 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.19 | 10.48% | $273.07 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.57 |
| Year 1 | 16.86% | $6.51 |
| Year 2 | 12.01% | $7.29 |
| Year 3 | 8.86% | $7.94 |
| Year 4 | 6.81% | $8.48 |
| Year 5 | 5.47% | $8.94 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $8.94 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 34.15× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $305.36 |
| Discounted at 10.48% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6463 | $185.48 |
We publish no single base value for Airbnb. Our valuation methods put it between $185.48 and $273.07 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $108.04 and a 10% chance it is above $313.48 in a year; a 52% chance it is higher than today's $181.13, from 41.35% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.48% a year.
At $181.13 the price implies free cash flow growing 9.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 16.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $162.43 | $152.08 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $165.87 | $150.55 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $173.70 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $172.01 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $164.39 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $189.99 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $181.13 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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