We publish no single base value for Analog Devices. Our valuation methods put it between $498.02 and $745.07 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $745.07 | +82.0% | free cash flow $4.94bn, growth 33.65% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.66%; stress floor $228.09 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $498.02 | +21.7% | earnings per share $12.88 valued at 26.1× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.24 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.20) |
| Peer beta | 1.83 (median of 14 S&P 500 Semiconductors companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.34 (84% own, 16% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.23 (0.67 × 1.34 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.66% |
Free cash flow grows 33.65% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $4.94bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 33.65% | $6.60bn | 0.9036 | $5.96bn |
| Year 2 | 33.65% | $8.82bn | 0.8165 | $7.20bn |
| Year 3 | 33.65% | $11.79bn | 0.7379 | $8.70bn |
| Year 4 | 33.65% | $15.75bn | 0.6667 | $10.50bn |
| Year 5 | 33.65% | $21.05bn | 0.6025 | $12.69bn |
| Year 6 | 28.54% | $27.06bn | 0.5444 | $14.73bn |
| Year 7 | 23.43% | $33.41bn | 0.4920 | $16.43bn |
| Year 8 | 18.33% | $39.53bn | 0.4445 | $17.57bn |
| Year 9 | 13.22% | $44.75bn | 0.4017 | $17.98bn |
| Year 10 | 8.11% | $48.38bn | 0.3630 | $17.56bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.66% − 3%) | $650.13bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $235.99bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $129.33bn |
| Total present value | $365.32bn |
| Shares outstanding | 490.32m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $745.07 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 28.65% | Growth 33.65% | Growth 38.65% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.66% | $676.27 | $885.85 | $1,153.44 |
| 10.66% | $570.88 | $745.07 | $967.05 |
| 11.66% | $490.70 | $638.12 | $825.60 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.24 | 10.71% | $739.63 |
| Peer beta | 1.83 | 13.36% | $505.97 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.23 | 10.66% | $745.07 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $12.88 |
| Year 1 | 33.65% | $17.21 |
| Year 2 | 24.45% | $21.42 |
| Year 3 | 18.02% | $25.28 |
| Year 4 | 13.51% | $28.70 |
| Year 5 | 10.36% | $31.67 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $31.67 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 26.1× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $826.61 |
| Discounted at 10.66% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6598 | $498.02 |
We publish no single base value for Analog Devices. Our valuation methods put it between $498.02 and $745.07 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $236.01 and a 10% chance it is above $722.32 in a year; a 51% chance it is higher than today's $409.29, from 43.42% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.66% a year.
At $409.29 the price implies free cash flow growing 22.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 33.6%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $417.15 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $406.19 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $395.44 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $391.07 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $417.11 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $363.56 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $409.29 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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