We publish no single base value for Archer Daniels Midland. Our valuation methods put it between $12.64 and $45.93 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $12.64 | -82.2% | free cash flow $346.00m, growth 1% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.14%; stress floor $8.90 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $45.93 | -35.3% | earnings per share $5.68 valued at 10.89× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.64 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.22) |
| Peer beta | 0.36 (median of 31 S&P 500 Consumer Staples companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.50 (51% own, 49% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.67 (0.67 × 0.50 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.14% |
Free cash flow grows 1.00% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $346.00m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 1.00% | $349.46m | 0.9247 | $323.14m |
| Year 2 | 1.00% | $352.95m | 0.8550 | $301.79m |
| Year 3 | 1.00% | $356.48m | 0.7906 | $281.85m |
| Year 4 | 1.00% | $360.05m | 0.7311 | $263.23m |
| Year 5 | 1.00% | $363.65m | 0.6760 | $245.84m |
| Year 6 | 1.33% | $368.50m | 0.6251 | $230.35m |
| Year 7 | 1.67% | $374.64m | 0.5780 | $216.56m |
| Year 8 | 2.00% | $382.13m | 0.5345 | $204.25m |
| Year 9 | 2.33% | $391.05m | 0.4942 | $193.27m |
| Year 10 | 2.67% | $401.48m | 0.4570 | $183.48m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.14% − 3%) | $8.04bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $3.67bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $2.44bn |
| Total present value | $6.12bn |
| Shares outstanding | 484.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $12.64 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -4% | Growth 1% | Growth 6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.14% | $11.30 | $15.63 | — |
| 8.14% | $9.24 | $12.64 | $17.22 |
| 9.14% | $7.84 | $10.62 | $14.35 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.64 | 8.01% | $12.97 |
| Peer beta | 0.36 | 6.75% | $17.25 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.67 | 8.14% | $12.64 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.68 |
| Year 1 | 1.00% | $5.74 |
| Year 2 | 1.60% | $5.83 |
| Year 3 | 2.02% | $5.95 |
| Year 4 | 2.31% | $6.09 |
| Year 5 | 2.52% | $6.24 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $6.24 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 10.89× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $67.94 |
| Discounted at 8.14% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4792 | $45.93 |
We publish no single base value for Archer Daniels Midland. Our valuation methods put it between $12.64 and $45.93 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $51.35 and a 10% chance it is above $106.13 in a year; a 56% chance it is higher than today's $70.97, from 28.18% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.14% a year.
At $70.97 the price implies free cash flow growing 30.2% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 1.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $80.45 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $79.89 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $82.61 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $80.14 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $76.91 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $69.97 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $70.97 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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