On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Autodesk is $400.07 a share, 54.2% above its $259.48 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $400.07 | +54.2% | free cash flow $2.83bn, growth 16.1% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.39%; plus net cash $3.09 a share; stress floor $197.46 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 33.1x is 1.8x the 18.3x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.27 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.25) |
| Peer beta | 1.21 (median of 14 S&P 500 Application Software companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.25 (63% own, 37% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.17 (0.67 × 1.25 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.39% |
Free cash flow grows 16.10% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.83bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 16.10% | $3.29bn | 0.9058 | $2.98bn |
| Year 2 | 16.10% | $3.82bn | 0.8205 | $3.13bn |
| Year 3 | 16.10% | $4.43bn | 0.7433 | $3.29bn |
| Year 4 | 16.10% | $5.15bn | 0.6733 | $3.46bn |
| Year 5 | 16.10% | $5.97bn | 0.6099 | $3.64bn |
| Year 6 | 13.92% | $6.81bn | 0.5525 | $3.76bn |
| Year 7 | 11.73% | $7.60bn | 0.5004 | $3.81bn |
| Year 8 | 9.55% | $8.33bn | 0.4533 | $3.78bn |
| Year 9 | 7.37% | $8.94bn | 0.4106 | $3.67bn |
| Year 10 | 5.18% | $9.41bn | 0.3720 | $3.50bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.39% − 3%) | $131.02bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $48.74bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $35.03bn |
| Total present value | $83.76bn |
| Shares outstanding | 211.00m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $396.98 |
| Plus net cash per share | $3.09 |
| Value per share | $400.07 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 11.1% | Growth 16.1% | Growth 21.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.39% | — | $470.48 | $625.04 |
| 10.39% | — | $400.07 | $528.58 |
| 11.39% | — | $346.78 | $455.71 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.27 | 10.84% | $374.36 |
| Peer beta | 1.21 | 10.57% | $389.41 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.17 | 10.39% | $400.07 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $400.07 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $400.07
Base value $400.07 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $147.09 and a 10% chance it is above $459.90 in a year; a 50% chance it is higher than today's $259.48, from 44.25% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.39% a year.
At $259.48 the price implies free cash flow growing 8.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 16.1%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $212.00 | $231.42 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $235.35 | $231.92 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $239.90 | $394.67 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $252.20 | $399.70 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $249.61 | $412.29 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $261.72 | $416.63 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $259.48 | $400.07 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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