On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for AES Corporation is $22.61 a share, 51.6% above its $14.91 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | the free cash flow base is -14.22% of market cap (floor 1%) — the terminal value carries the answer, not the cash flows |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $22.61 | +51.6% | earnings per share $2.29 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 7.7×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.29 |
| Year 1 | 12.25% | $2.57 |
| Year 2 | 9.47% | $2.81 |
| Year 3 | 7.53% | $3.03 |
| Year 4 | 6.17% | $3.21 |
| Year 5 | 5.22% | $3.38 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $3.38 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 7.7×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $33.80 |
| Discounted at 8.37% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4947 | $22.61 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $22.61 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $22.61
Base value $22.61 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $15.64 and a 10% chance it is above $16.79 in a year; a 100% chance it is higher than today's $14.91, from 2.75% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.37% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $14.91 | $14.94 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $14.94 | $15.05 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $14.95 | $20.52 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $15.00 | $20.60 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $14.83 | $20.85 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $14.87 | $22.89 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $14.91 | $22.61 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on AES · AES Corporation company page · Call and put prices