We publish no single base value for Aflac. Our valuation methods put it between $23.39 and $162.24 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $162.24 | +28.2% | free cash flow $2.59bn, growth -31% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.37%; plus net cash $149.64 a share; stress floor $174.55 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $23.39 | -81.5% | earnings per share $7.45 valued at 12.79× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.55 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.16) |
| Peer beta | 0.93 (median of 74 S&P 500 Financials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.59 (91% own, 9% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.72 (0.67 × 0.59 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.37% |
Free cash flow grows -31.00% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.59bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -31.00% | $1.79bn | 0.9228 | $1.65bn |
| Year 2 | -31.00% | $1.23bn | 0.8515 | $1.05bn |
| Year 3 | -31.00% | $851.50m | 0.7857 | $669.04m |
| Year 4 | -31.00% | $587.53m | 0.7250 | $425.99m |
| Year 5 | -31.00% | $405.40m | 0.6690 | $271.23m |
| Year 6 | -25.33% | $302.70m | 0.6174 | $186.88m |
| Year 7 | -19.67% | $243.17m | 0.5697 | $138.53m |
| Year 8 | -14.00% | $209.12m | 0.5257 | $109.93m |
| Year 9 | -8.33% | $191.70m | 0.4851 | $92.99m |
| Year 10 | -2.67% | $186.58m | 0.4476 | $83.52m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.37% − 3%) | $3.58bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $1.60bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $4.68bn |
| Total present value | $6.28bn |
| Shares outstanding | 498.68m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $12.60 |
| Plus net cash per share | $149.64 |
| Value per share | $162.24 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -36% | Growth -31% | Growth -26% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.37% | $160.09 | $163.61 | $168.59 |
| 8.37% | $159.24 | $162.24 | $166.39 |
| 9.37% | $158.63 | $161.25 | $164.84 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.55 | 7.61% | $163.24 |
| Peer beta | 0.93 | 9.32% | $161.30 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.72 | 8.37% | $162.24 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $7.45 |
| Year 1 | -31.00% | $5.14 |
| Year 2 | -22.50% | $3.98 |
| Year 3 | -16.12% | $3.34 |
| Year 4 | -11.34% | $2.96 |
| Year 5 | -7.76% | $2.73 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $2.73 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 12.79× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $34.96 |
| Discounted at 8.37% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4947 | $23.39 |
We publish no single base value for Aflac. Our valuation methods put it between $23.39 and $162.24 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $107.79 and a 10% chance it is above $169.67 in a year; a 65% chance it is higher than today's $126.51, from 17.61% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.37% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $111.54 | $46.79 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $114.54 | $47.05 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $119.97 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $120.51 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $123.89 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $124.06 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $126.51 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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