We publish no single base value for American International Group. Our valuation methods put it between $61.25 and $174.15 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $174.15 | +110.9% | free cash flow $5.20bn, growth 1.26% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.23%; stress floor $122.19 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $61.25 | -25.8% | earnings per share $8.23 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 8.9×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.48 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.19) |
| Peer beta | 0.93 (median of 74 S&P 500 Financials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.54 (87% own, 13% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.69 (0.67 × 0.54 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.23% |
Free cash flow grows 1.26% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.20bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 1.26% | $5.26bn | 0.9239 | $4.86bn |
| Year 2 | 1.26% | $5.33bn | 0.8536 | $4.55bn |
| Year 3 | 1.26% | $5.40bn | 0.7887 | $4.26bn |
| Year 4 | 1.26% | $5.46bn | 0.7287 | $3.98bn |
| Year 5 | 1.26% | $5.53bn | 0.6732 | $3.73bn |
| Year 6 | 1.55% | $5.62bn | 0.6220 | $3.50bn |
| Year 7 | 1.84% | $5.72bn | 0.5747 | $3.29bn |
| Year 8 | 2.13% | $5.84bn | 0.5310 | $3.10bn |
| Year 9 | 2.42% | $5.99bn | 0.4906 | $2.94bn |
| Year 10 | 2.71% | $6.15bn | 0.4532 | $2.79bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.23% − 3%) | $120.97bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $54.83bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $36.99bn |
| Total present value | $91.82bn |
| Shares outstanding | 527.22m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $174.15 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -3.74% | Growth 1.26% | Growth 6.26% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.23% | $155.38 | $214.56 | — |
| 8.23% | $127.47 | $174.15 | — |
| 9.23% | $108.44 | $146.68 | $197.98 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.48 | 7.29% | $211.85 |
| Peer beta | 0.93 | 9.32% | $144.86 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.69 | 8.23% | $174.15 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $8.23 |
| Year 1 | 1.26% | $8.33 |
| Year 2 | 1.78% | $8.48 |
| Year 3 | 2.15% | $8.66 |
| Year 4 | 2.40% | $8.87 |
| Year 5 | 2.58% | $9.10 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $9.10 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 8.9×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $90.98 |
| Discounted at 8.23% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4854 | $61.25 |
We publish no single base value for American International Group. Our valuation methods put it between $61.25 and $174.15 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $66.69 and a 10% chance it is above $114.88 in a year; a 61% chance it is higher than today's $82.57, from 21.11% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.23% a year.
At $82.57 the price implies free cash flow growing -10.7% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 1.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $74.93 | $54.17 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $77.04 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $80.74 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $81.26 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $81.90 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $77.75 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $82.57 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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