On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Albemarle Corporation is $511.39 a share, 439.2% above its $94.85 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $511.39 | +439.2% | free cash flow $1.44bn, growth 18.8% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.32%; plus net cash $8.85 a share; stress floor — |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 18.0x is 2.0x the 9.0x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.34 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.41) |
| Peer beta | 0.86 (median of 5 S&P 500 Specialty Chemicals companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.90 (7% own, 93% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.93 (0.67 × 0.90 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.32% |
Free cash flow grows 18.80% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.44bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 18.80% | $1.72bn | 0.9148 | $1.57bn |
| Year 2 | 18.80% | $2.04bn | 0.8368 | $1.71bn |
| Year 3 | 18.80% | $2.42bn | 0.7655 | $1.85bn |
| Year 4 | 18.80% | $2.88bn | 0.7003 | $2.01bn |
| Year 5 | 18.80% | $3.42bn | 0.6406 | $2.19bn |
| Year 6 | 16.17% | $3.97bn | 0.5860 | $2.33bn |
| Year 7 | 13.53% | $4.51bn | 0.5361 | $2.42bn |
| Year 8 | 10.90% | $5.00bn | 0.4904 | $2.45bn |
| Year 9 | 8.27% | $5.41bn | 0.4486 | $2.43bn |
| Year 10 | 5.63% | $5.72bn | 0.4104 | $2.35bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.32% − 3%) | $93.25bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $38.27bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $21.30bn |
| Total present value | $59.57bn |
| Shares outstanding | 118.54m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $502.54 |
| Plus net cash per share | $8.85 |
| Value per share | $511.39 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 13.8% | Growth 18.8% | Growth 23.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.32% | $463.47 | $619.10 | $822.79 |
| 9.32% | $385.40 | $511.39 | $675.82 |
| 10.32% | $328.97 | $433.68 | $569.95 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.34 | 11.16% | $383.21 |
| Peer beta | 0.86 | 9.00% | $541.37 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.93 | 9.32% | $511.39 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $511.39 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $511.39
Base value $511.39 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $56.06 and a 10% chance it is above $162.04 in a year; a 51% chance it is higher than today's $94.85, from 41.2% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.32% a year.
At $94.85 the price implies free cash flow growing -10.9% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 18.8%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $104.59 | $100.69 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $101.27 | $100.05 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $95.48 | $391.64 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $93.67 | $397.42 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $91.00 | $415.35 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $99.25 | $536.20 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $94.85 | $511.39 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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