On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Align Technology is $121.05 a share, 27.5% below its $166.97 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $121.05 | -27.5% | free cash flow $602.50m, growth 1.9% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.66%; plus net cash $14.06 a share; stress floor $94.88 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 26.7x is 1.8x the 15.0x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.73 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.35) |
| Peer beta | 0.77 (median of 58 S&P 500 Health Care companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.35 (61% own, 39% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.23 (0.67 × 1.35 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.66% |
Free cash flow grows 1.90% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $602.50m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 1.90% | $613.95m | 0.9036 | $554.78m |
| Year 2 | 1.90% | $625.61m | 0.8165 | $510.84m |
| Year 3 | 1.90% | $637.50m | 0.7379 | $470.38m |
| Year 4 | 1.90% | $649.61m | 0.6667 | $433.12m |
| Year 5 | 1.90% | $661.95m | 0.6025 | $398.82m |
| Year 6 | 2.08% | $675.74m | 0.5444 | $367.89m |
| Year 7 | 2.27% | $691.06m | 0.4920 | $339.97m |
| Year 8 | 2.45% | $707.99m | 0.4445 | $314.74m |
| Year 9 | 2.63% | $726.64m | 0.4017 | $291.89m |
| Year 10 | 2.82% | $747.10m | 0.3630 | $271.19m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.66% − 3%) | $10.04bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $3.64bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $3.95bn |
| Total present value | $7.60bn |
| Shares outstanding | 71.02m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $106.99 |
| Plus net cash per share | $14.06 |
| Value per share | $121.05 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -3.1% | Growth 1.9% | Growth 6.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.66% | $105.24 | $136.88 | $179.19 |
| 10.66% | $94.20 | $121.05 | $156.79 |
| 11.66% | $85.67 | $108.86 | $139.60 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.73 | 12.91% | $97.08 |
| Peer beta | 0.77 | 8.59% | $160.07 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.23 | 10.66% | $121.05 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $121.05 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $121.05
Base value $121.05 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $106.71 and a 10% chance it is above $279.47 in a year; a 54% chance it is higher than today's $166.97, from 37.37% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.66% a year.
At $166.97 the price implies free cash flow growing 8.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 1.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $143.74 | $109.54 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $142.71 | $108.92 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $147.31 | $168.36 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $154.51 | $170.12 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $149.89 | $163.27 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $166.00 | $143.63 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $166.97 | $121.05 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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