We publish no single base value for Allstate. Our valuation methods put it between $300.35 and $1,020.87 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $1,020.87 | +282.8% | free cash flow $12.73bn, growth 0.5% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.29%; stress floor $692.31 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $300.35 | +12.6% | earnings per share $38.46 valued at 10.25× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: the filing discloses one operating segment, and one business summed is an earnings multiple with extra steps, not a second opinion |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.13 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.21) |
| Peer beta | 0.29 (median of 7 S&P 500 Property & Casualty Insurance companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.22 (44% own, 56% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.48 (0.67 × 0.22 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.29% |
Free cash flow grows 0.50% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $12.73bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 0.50% | $12.80bn | 0.9321 | $11.93bn |
| Year 2 | 0.50% | $12.86bn | 0.8687 | $11.17bn |
| Year 3 | 0.50% | $12.93bn | 0.8097 | $10.47bn |
| Year 4 | 0.50% | $12.99bn | 0.7547 | $9.80bn |
| Year 5 | 0.50% | $13.06bn | 0.7034 | $9.18bn |
| Year 6 | 0.92% | $13.18bn | 0.6556 | $8.64bn |
| Year 7 | 1.33% | $13.35bn | 0.6111 | $8.16bn |
| Year 8 | 1.75% | $13.58bn | 0.5695 | $7.74bn |
| Year 9 | 2.17% | $13.88bn | 0.5308 | $7.37bn |
| Year 10 | 2.58% | $14.24bn | 0.4948 | $7.04bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.29% − 3%) | $341.83bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $169.13bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $91.50bn |
| Total present value | $260.63bn |
| Shares outstanding | 255.30m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $1,020.87 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -4.5% | Growth 0.5% | Growth 5.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.29% | $947.88 | $1,324.38 | — |
| 7.29% | $739.28 | $1,020.87 | — |
| 8.29% | $609.02 | $831.88 | $1,132.65 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.13 | 5.71% | $1,599.92 |
| Peer beta | 0.29 | 6.43% | $1,269.44 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.48 | 7.29% | $1,020.87 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $38.46 |
| Year 1 | 0.50% | $38.65 |
| Year 2 | 1.25% | $39.13 |
| Year 3 | 1.78% | $39.83 |
| Year 4 | 2.14% | $40.68 |
| Year 5 | 2.40% | $41.66 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $41.66 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 10.25× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $426.99 |
| Discounted at 7.29% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4217 | $300.35 |
We publish no single base value for Allstate. Our valuation methods put it between $300.35 and $1,020.87 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $193.65 and a 10% chance it is above $392.37 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $266.69, from 27.41% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.29% a year.
At $266.69 the price implies free cash flow growing -20.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 0.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $223.74 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $229.43 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $247.88 | $318.91 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $253.19 | $320.30 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $259.87 | $323.33 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $254.81 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $266.69 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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