We publish no single base value for Ametek. Our valuation methods put it between $218.40 and $255.79 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $255.79 | +6.1% | free cash flow $1.93bn, growth 14.34% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.59%; stress floor $127.43 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $218.40 | -9.4% | earnings per share $8.56 valued at 25.9× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.96 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.12) |
| Peer beta | 1.51 (median of 5 S&P 500 Electrical Components & Equipment companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.98 (96% own, 4% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.99 (0.67 × 0.98 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.59% |
Free cash flow grows 14.34% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.93bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 14.34% | $2.21bn | 0.9125 | $2.02bn |
| Year 2 | 14.34% | $2.53bn | 0.8327 | $2.10bn |
| Year 3 | 14.34% | $2.89bn | 0.7599 | $2.20bn |
| Year 4 | 14.34% | $3.30bn | 0.6934 | $2.29bn |
| Year 5 | 14.34% | $3.78bn | 0.6328 | $2.39bn |
| Year 6 | 12.45% | $4.25bn | 0.5774 | $2.45bn |
| Year 7 | 10.56% | $4.70bn | 0.5269 | $2.47bn |
| Year 8 | 8.67% | $5.10bn | 0.4808 | $2.45bn |
| Year 9 | 6.78% | $5.45bn | 0.4388 | $2.39bn |
| Year 10 | 4.89% | $5.71bn | 0.4004 | $2.29bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.59% − 3%) | $89.38bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $35.79bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $23.05bn |
| Total present value | $58.84bn |
| Shares outstanding | 230.04m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $255.79 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 9.34% | Growth 14.34% | Growth 19.34% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.59% | — | $306.61 | $410.65 |
| 9.59% | — | $255.79 | $340.66 |
| 10.59% | — | $218.58 | $289.50 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.96 | 9.45% | $261.72 |
| Peer beta | 1.51 | 11.93% | $182.04 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.99 | 9.59% | $255.79 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $8.56 |
| Year 1 | 14.34% | $9.79 |
| Year 2 | 10.94% | $10.86 |
| Year 3 | 8.56% | $11.79 |
| Year 4 | 6.89% | $12.61 |
| Year 5 | 5.72% | $13.33 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $13.33 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 25.9× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $345.16 |
| Discounted at 9.59% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5804 | $218.40 |
We publish no single base value for Ametek. Our valuation methods put it between $218.40 and $255.79 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $173.24 and a 10% chance it is above $370.53 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $241.04, from 29.51% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.59% a year.
At $241.04 the price implies free cash flow growing 13.3% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 14.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $251.93 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $248.58 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $248.17 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $240.03 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $241.12 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $228.67 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $241.04 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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