We publish no single base value for Arista Networks. Our valuation methods put it between $284.92 and $443.85 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $443.85 | +114.8% | free cash flow $5.02bn, growth 40.74% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.48%; plus net cash $11.19 a share; stress floor $121.22 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $284.92 | +37.9% | earnings per share $4.38 valued at 38.73× (the stock's own median P/E) in 7 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.60 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.29) |
| Peer beta | 1.07 (median of 5 S&P 500 Communications Equipment companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.28 (38% own, 62% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.19 (0.67 × 1.28 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.48% |
Free cash flow grows 40.74% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.02bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 40.74% | $7.06bn | 0.9051 | $6.39bn |
| Year 2 | 40.74% | $9.94bn | 0.8192 | $8.14bn |
| Year 3 | 40.74% | $13.99bn | 0.7415 | $10.37bn |
| Year 4 | 40.74% | $19.69bn | 0.6711 | $13.21bn |
| Year 5 | 40.74% | $27.71bn | 0.6074 | $16.83bn |
| Year 6 | 34.45% | $37.25bn | 0.5498 | $20.48bn |
| Year 7 | 28.16% | $47.74bn | 0.4976 | $23.76bn |
| Year 8 | 21.87% | $58.18bn | 0.4504 | $26.20bn |
| Year 9 | 15.58% | $67.24bn | 0.4076 | $27.41bn |
| Year 10 | 9.29% | $73.49bn | 0.3689 | $27.11bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.48% − 3%) | $1.01tn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $373.12bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $179.91bn |
| Total present value | $553.03bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.28bn |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $432.66 |
| Plus net cash per share | $11.19 |
| Value per share | $443.85 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 35.74% | Growth 40.74% | Growth 45.74% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.48% | $410.30 | $529.83 | $681.09 |
| 10.48% | $345.14 | $443.85 | $568.56 |
| 11.48% | $295.97 | $379.04 | $483.81 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.60 | 12.33% | $335.69 |
| Peer beta | 1.07 | 9.95% | $487.06 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.19 | 10.48% | $443.85 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $4.38 |
| Year 1 | 40.74% | $6.16 |
| Year 2 | 29.42% | $7.97 |
| Year 3 | 21.49% | $9.69 |
| Year 4 | 15.94% | $11.23 |
| Year 5 | 12.06% | $12.58 |
| Year 6 | 9.34% | $13.76 |
| Year 7 | 7.44% | $14.78 |
| Earnings per share in year 7 | $14.78 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 38.73× |
| Value in 7 years = earnings × P/E | $572.59 |
| Discounted at 10.48% over 7 years: ÷ 2.0097 | $284.92 |
We publish no single base value for Arista Networks. Our valuation methods put it between $284.92 and $443.85 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $89.53 and a 10% chance it is above $410.59 in a year; a 45% chance it is higher than today's $206.63, from 59.12% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.48% a year.
At $206.63 the price implies free cash flow growing 25.7% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 40.7%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $207.35 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $216.74 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $176.98 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $172.37 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $168.86 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $170.80 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $206.63 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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