We publish no single base value for Aon plc. Our valuation methods put it between $299.44 and $307.72 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $299.44 | -10.2% | free cash flow $3.27bn, growth 2.6% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.14%; stress floor $200.08 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $307.72 | -7.7% | earnings per share $18.60 valued at 21.36× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.63 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.19) |
| Peer beta | 0.47 (median of 5 S&P 500 Insurance Brokers companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.50 (22% own, 78% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.67 (0.67 × 0.50 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.14% |
Free cash flow grows 2.60% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.27bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 2.60% | $3.35bn | 0.9247 | $3.10bn |
| Year 2 | 2.60% | $3.44bn | 0.8550 | $2.94bn |
| Year 3 | 2.60% | $3.53bn | 0.7906 | $2.79bn |
| Year 4 | 2.60% | $3.62bn | 0.7311 | $2.65bn |
| Year 5 | 2.60% | $3.71bn | 0.6760 | $2.51bn |
| Year 6 | 2.67% | $3.81bn | 0.6251 | $2.38bn |
| Year 7 | 2.73% | $3.92bn | 0.5780 | $2.26bn |
| Year 8 | 2.80% | $4.03bn | 0.5345 | $2.15bn |
| Year 9 | 2.87% | $4.14bn | 0.4942 | $2.05bn |
| Year 10 | 2.93% | $4.26bn | 0.4570 | $1.95bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.14% − 3%) | $85.34bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $39.00bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $24.78bn |
| Total present value | $63.78bn |
| Shares outstanding | 213.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $299.44 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -2.4% | Growth 2.6% | Growth 7.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.14% | $269.05 | $371.41 | — |
| 8.14% | $219.16 | $299.44 | — |
| 9.14% | $185.40 | $250.89 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.63 | 7.96% | $310.26 |
| Peer beta | 0.47 | 7.24% | $362.68 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.67 | 8.14% | $299.44 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $18.60 |
| Year 1 | 2.60% | $19.09 |
| Year 2 | 2.70% | $19.60 |
| Year 3 | 2.77% | $20.14 |
| Year 4 | 2.83% | $20.71 |
| Year 5 | 2.87% | $21.31 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $21.31 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 21.36× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $455.18 |
| Discounted at 8.14% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4792 | $307.72 |
We publish no single base value for Aon plc. Our valuation methods put it between $299.44 and $307.72 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $215.09 and a 10% chance it is above $533.90 in a year; a 52% chance it is higher than today's $333.42, from 35.29% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.14% a year.
At $333.42 the price implies free cash flow growing 4.3% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 2.6%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $269.45 | $248.23 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $273.47 | $246.05 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $292.55 | $278.65 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $303.52 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $321.67 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $334.81 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $333.42 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on AON · Aon plc company page · Call and put prices