We publish no single base value for APA Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $48.95 and $94.48 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $94.48 | +98.2% | free cash flow $2.09bn, growth -1.88% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.79%; stress floor $71.77 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $48.95 | +2.7% | earnings per share $6.94 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 6.3×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.30 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.37) |
| Peer beta | 0.43 (median of 8 S&P 500 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.39 (27% own, 73% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.59 (0.67 × 0.39 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.79% |
Free cash flow grows -1.88% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.09bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -1.88% | $2.05bn | 0.9278 | $1.90bn |
| Year 2 | -1.88% | $2.01bn | 0.8608 | $1.73bn |
| Year 3 | -1.88% | $1.97bn | 0.7986 | $1.58bn |
| Year 4 | -1.88% | $1.94bn | 0.7409 | $1.44bn |
| Year 5 | -1.88% | $1.90bn | 0.6874 | $1.31bn |
| Year 6 | -1.07% | $1.88bn | 0.6377 | $1.20bn |
| Year 7 | -0.25% | $1.88bn | 0.5917 | $1.11bn |
| Year 8 | 0.56% | $1.89bn | 0.5490 | $1.04bn |
| Year 9 | 1.37% | $1.91bn | 0.5093 | $973.87m |
| Year 10 | 2.19% | $1.95bn | 0.4725 | $923.28m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.79% − 3%) | $42.06bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $19.87bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $13.19bn |
| Total present value | $33.07bn |
| Shares outstanding | 350.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $94.48 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -6.88% | Growth -1.88% | Growth 3.12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.79% | $84.94 | $118.25 | $163.76 |
| 7.79% | $68.71 | $94.48 | $129.51 |
| 8.79% | $58.02 | $78.90 | $107.10 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.30 | 6.48% | $128.20 |
| Peer beta | 0.43 | 7.06% | $110.42 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.59 | 7.79% | $94.48 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $6.94 |
| Year 1 | -1.88% | $6.81 |
| Year 2 | -0.17% | $6.80 |
| Year 3 | 0.94% | $6.86 |
| Year 4 | 1.66% | $6.97 |
| Year 5 | 2.13% | $7.12 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $7.12 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 6.3×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $71.21 |
| Discounted at 7.79% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4548 | $48.95 |
We publish no single base value for APA Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $48.95 and $94.48 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $27.70 and a 10% chance it is above $80.24 in a year; a 49% chance it is higher than today's $47.66, from 41.28% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.79% a year.
At $47.66 the price implies free cash flow growing -12.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -1.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $43.68 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $45.88 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $49.15 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $51.90 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $52.82 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $44.63 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $47.66 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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