On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Apollo Global Management is $23.45 a share, 80.7% below its $121.35 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $23.45 | -80.7% | free cash flow $9.67bn, growth -52.3% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 11.07%; plus net cash $10.84 a share; stress floor $47.34 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | 0.09x spot |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.51 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.24) |
| Peer beta | 1.44 (median of 11 S&P 500 Asset Management & Custody Banks companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.48 (53% own, 47% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.32 (0.67 × 1.48 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 11.07% |
Free cash flow grows -52.30% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $9.67bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -52.30% | $4.61bn | 0.9003 | $4.15bn |
| Year 2 | -52.30% | $2.20bn | 0.8106 | $1.78bn |
| Year 3 | -52.30% | $1.05bn | 0.7298 | $765.93m |
| Year 4 | -52.30% | $500.61m | 0.6571 | $328.94m |
| Year 5 | -52.30% | $238.79m | 0.5916 | $141.26m |
| Year 6 | -43.08% | $135.91m | 0.5326 | $72.39m |
| Year 7 | -33.87% | $89.88m | 0.4795 | $43.10m |
| Year 8 | -24.65% | $67.73m | 0.4317 | $29.24m |
| Year 9 | -15.43% | $57.27m | 0.3887 | $22.26m |
| Year 10 | -6.22% | $53.71m | 0.3500 | $18.80m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (11.07% − 3%) | $685.57m |
| Terminal value in today's money | $239.93m |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $7.36bn |
| Total present value | $7.60bn |
| Shares outstanding | 602.63m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $12.61 |
| Plus net cash per share | $10.84 |
| Value per share | $23.45 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -57.3% | Growth -52.3% | Growth -47.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.07% | $21.32 | $23.75 | $26.80 |
| 11.07% | $21.12 | $23.45 | $26.34 |
| 12.07% | $20.94 | $23.18 | $25.93 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.51 | 11.93% | $23.21 |
| Peer beta | 1.44 | 11.61% | $23.30 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.32 | 11.07% | $23.45 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $23.45 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $23.45
Base value $23.45 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $81.29 and a 10% chance it is above $199.14 in a year; a 56% chance it is higher than today's $121.35, from 34.78% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 11.07% a year.
At $121.35 the price implies free cash flow growing -7.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -52.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $114.02 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $118.65 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $110.78 | $249.39 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $112.83 | $250.26 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $115.84 | $253.19 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $116.75 | $21.10 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $121.35 | $23.45 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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