On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for AppLovin is $1,999.56 a share, 407.9% above its $393.68 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $1,999.56 | +407.9% | free cash flow $4.87bn, growth 46.45% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.89%; stress floor $451.89 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 42.8x is 2.2x the 19.2x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: the filing discloses one operating segment, and one business summed is an earnings multiple with extra steps, not a second opinion |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 2.51 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.64) |
| Peer beta | 0.93 (median of 19 S&P 500 Communication Services companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.42 (31% own, 69% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.28 (0.67 × 1.42 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.89% |
Free cash flow grows 46.45% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $4.87bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 46.45% | $7.14bn | 0.9018 | $6.44bn |
| Year 2 | 46.45% | $10.46bn | 0.8132 | $8.50bn |
| Year 3 | 46.45% | $15.31bn | 0.7334 | $11.23bn |
| Year 4 | 46.45% | $22.42bn | 0.6613 | $14.83bn |
| Year 5 | 46.45% | $32.84bn | 0.5964 | $19.59bn |
| Year 6 | 39.21% | $45.72bn | 0.5378 | $24.59bn |
| Year 7 | 31.97% | $60.33bn | 0.4850 | $29.26bn |
| Year 8 | 24.72% | $75.24bn | 0.4374 | $32.91bn |
| Year 9 | 17.48% | $88.40bn | 0.3944 | $34.87bn |
| Year 10 | 10.24% | $97.45bn | 0.3557 | $34.66bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.89% − 3%) | $1.27tn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $452.52bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $216.87bn |
| Total present value | $669.39bn |
| Shares outstanding | 334.77m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $1,999.56 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 41.45% | Growth 46.45% | Growth 51.45% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.89% | $1,849.46 | $2,384.31 | $3,055.96 |
| 10.89% | $1,555.06 | $1,999.56 | $2,556.95 |
| 11.89% | $1,330.13 | $1,705.89 | $2,176.40 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 2.51 | 16.42% | $955.13 |
| Peer beta | 0.93 | 9.32% | $2,663.79 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.28 | 10.89% | $1,999.56 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $1,999.56 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $1,999.56
Base value $1,999.56 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $119.20 and a 10% chance it is above $876.18 in a year; a 40% chance it is higher than today's $393.68, from 77.43% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.89% a year.
At $393.68 the price implies free cash flow growing 15.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 46.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $268.22 | $389.60 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $277.04 | $391.01 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $266.13 | $2,061.50 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $260.25 | $2,091.94 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $228.50 | $2,004.10 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $391.22 | $2,090.44 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $393.68 | $1,999.56 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on APP · AppLovin company page · Call and put prices