On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Aptiv is $11.00 a share, 71.7% below its $38.81 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $11.00 | -71.7% | free cash flow $516.00m, growth -17.07% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.35%; stress floor $14.65 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 15.2x is 2.2x the 6.8x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.30 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.26) |
| Peer beta | 1.09 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.25 (73% own, 27% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.16 (0.67 × 1.25 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.35% |
Free cash flow grows -17.07% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $516.00m | — | — |
| Year 1 | -17.07% | $427.92m | 0.9062 | $387.78m |
| Year 2 | -17.07% | $354.87m | 0.8212 | $291.43m |
| Year 3 | -17.07% | $294.30m | 0.7442 | $219.01m |
| Year 4 | -17.07% | $244.06m | 0.6744 | $164.59m |
| Year 5 | -17.07% | $202.40m | 0.6111 | $123.69m |
| Year 6 | -13.72% | $174.62m | 0.5538 | $96.71m |
| Year 7 | -10.38% | $156.49m | 0.5019 | $78.54m |
| Year 8 | -7.04% | $145.48m | 0.4548 | $66.17m |
| Year 9 | -3.69% | $140.12m | 0.4121 | $57.75m |
| Year 10 | -0.35% | $139.63m | 0.3735 | $52.15m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.35% − 3%) | $1.96bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $730.83m |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $1.54bn |
| Total present value | $2.27bn |
| Shares outstanding | 206.29m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $11.00 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -22.07% | Growth -17.07% | Growth -12.07% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.35% | $9.14 | $12.20 | $16.40 |
| 10.35% | $8.34 | $11.00 | $14.60 |
| 11.35% | $7.73 | $10.06 | $13.22 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.30 | 10.98% | $10.38 |
| Peer beta | 1.09 | 10.04% | $11.34 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.16 | 10.35% | $11.00 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $11.00 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $11.00
Base value $11.00 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $25.81 and a 10% chance it is above $63.24 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $38.81, from 34.79% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.35% a year.
At $38.81 the price implies free cash flow growing 4.8% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -17.1%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $43.54 | $43.42 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $43.80 | $43.14 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $44.86 | $30.39 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $42.69 | $30.70 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $43.93 | $31.64 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $39.44 | $11.28 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $38.81 | $11.00 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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