On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Ares Management is $49.79 a share, 62.6% below its $133.29 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | the free cash flow base is -2.03% of market cap (floor 1%) — the terminal value carries the answer, not the cash flows |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $49.79 | -62.6% | earnings per share $5.64 valued at 25.78× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.64 |
| Year 1 | -18.70% | $4.59 |
| Year 2 | -13.27% | $3.98 |
| Year 3 | -9.21% | $3.61 |
| Year 4 | -6.15% | $3.39 |
| Year 5 | -3.87% | $3.26 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $3.26 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 25.78× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $84.00 |
| Discounted at 11.03% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6870 | $49.79 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $49.79 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $49.79
Base value $49.79 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $92.31 and a 10% chance it is above $214.41 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $133.29, from 32.71% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 11.03% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $117.55 | $50.03 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $117.22 | $49.73 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $112.27 | $129.96 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $122.08 | $127.23 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $128.15 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $133.98 | $50.39 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $133.29 | $49.79 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on ARES · Ares Management company page · Call and put prices