On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Atmos Energy is $142.88 a share, 18.8% below its $175.92 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | the free cash flow base is -6.78% of market cap (floor 1%) — the terminal value carries the answer, not the cash flows |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $142.88 | -18.8% | earnings per share $9.10 valued at 19.22× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $9.10 |
| Year 1 | 4.80% | $9.53 |
| Year 2 | 4.17% | $9.93 |
| Year 3 | 3.76% | $10.31 |
| Year 4 | 3.49% | $10.67 |
| Year 5 | 3.32% | $11.02 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $11.02 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 19.22× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $211.79 |
| Discounted at 8.19% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4823 | $142.88 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $142.88 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $142.88
Base value $142.88 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $153.88 and a 10% chance it is above $230.54 in a year; a 67% chance it is higher than today's $175.92, from 15.69% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.19% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $157.17 | $128.38 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $161.66 | $129.05 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $167.34 | $132.43 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $172.21 | $133.00 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $172.41 | $133.97 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $173.22 | $144.72 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $175.92 | $142.88 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Jun 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on ATO · Atmos Energy company page · Call and put prices