We publish no single base value for Avery Dennison. Our valuation methods put it between $152.21 and $264.39 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $264.39 | +41.4% | free cash flow $1.03bn, growth 5.2% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.04%; stress floor $170.06 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $152.21 | -18.6% | earnings per share $10.19 valued at 18.73× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.77 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.15) |
| Peer beta | 0.90 (median of 23 S&P 500 Materials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.80 (77% own, 23% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.87 (0.67 × 0.80 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.04% |
Free cash flow grows 5.20% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.03bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.20% | $1.09bn | 0.9171 | $995.13m |
| Year 2 | 5.20% | $1.14bn | 0.8410 | $960.04m |
| Year 3 | 5.20% | $1.20bn | 0.7712 | $926.19m |
| Year 4 | 5.20% | $1.26bn | 0.7073 | $893.53m |
| Year 5 | 5.20% | $1.33bn | 0.6486 | $862.02m |
| Year 6 | 4.83% | $1.39bn | 0.5948 | $828.73m |
| Year 7 | 4.47% | $1.46bn | 0.5455 | $793.93m |
| Year 8 | 4.10% | $1.52bn | 0.5002 | $757.93m |
| Year 9 | 3.73% | $1.57bn | 0.4587 | $721.01m |
| Year 10 | 3.37% | $1.62bn | 0.4207 | $683.47m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.04% − 3%) | $27.68bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $11.65bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $8.42bn |
| Total present value | $20.07bn |
| Shares outstanding | 75.90m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $264.39 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.2% | Growth 5.2% | Growth 10.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.04% | $232.98 | $318.00 | $431.94 |
| 9.04% | $195.45 | $264.39 | — |
| 10.04% | $168.53 | $226.05 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.77 | 8.59% | $286.14 |
| Peer beta | 0.90 | 9.18% | $258.49 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.87 | 9.04% | $264.39 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $10.19 |
| Year 1 | 5.20% | $10.72 |
| Year 2 | 4.54% | $11.21 |
| Year 3 | 4.08% | $11.66 |
| Year 4 | 3.75% | $12.10 |
| Year 5 | 3.53% | $12.53 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $12.53 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 18.73× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $234.68 |
| Discounted at 9.04% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5418 | $152.21 |
We publish no single base value for Avery Dennison. Our valuation methods put it between $152.21 and $264.39 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $152.36 and a 10% chance it is above $262.06 in a year; a 63% chance it is higher than today's $186.96, from 21.05% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.04% a year.
At $186.96 the price implies free cash flow growing -0.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.2%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $169.87 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $167.82 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $175.31 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $181.83 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $182.22 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $186.78 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $186.96 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on AVY · Avery Dennison company page · Call and put prices