On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for American Water Works is $124.17 a share, 15.9% below its $147.58 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | the free cash flow base is -3.94% of market cap (floor 1%) — the terminal value carries the answer, not the cash flows |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $124.17 | -15.9% | earnings per share $6.09 valued at 25.39× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $6.09 |
| Year 1 | 4.10% | $6.34 |
| Year 2 | 3.71% | $6.57 |
| Year 3 | 3.46% | $6.80 |
| Year 4 | 3.30% | $7.02 |
| Year 5 | 3.20% | $7.25 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $7.25 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 25.39× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $184.06 |
| Discounted at 8.19% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4823 | $124.17 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $124.17 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $124.17
Base value $124.17 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $117.51 and a 10% chance it is above $207.23 in a year; a 60% chance it is higher than today's $147.58, from 22.02% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.19% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $130.25 | $128.36 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $128.88 | $128.83 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $134.94 | $132.21 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $142.75 | $132.66 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $144.37 | $126.56 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $150.29 | $126.41 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $147.58 | $124.17 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on AWK · American Water Works company page · Call and put prices