On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for American Express is $244.76 a share, 23.0% below its $318.06 close; 0 of 2 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | not used for banks and lenders: deposits and loans are the business, so free cash flow does not describe it; see tangible book |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $273.57 | -14.0% | earnings per share $18.39 valued at 17.65× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: 'USCS' matches no business kind in the house table, so it cannot be valued. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | $215.95 | -32.1% | tangible book $42.30 a share at 5.105× |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $18.39 |
| Year 1 | 8.72% | $19.99 |
| Year 2 | 7.00% | $21.39 |
| Year 3 | 5.80% | $22.64 |
| Year 4 | 4.96% | $23.76 |
| Year 5 | 4.37% | $24.80 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $24.80 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 17.65× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $437.69 |
| Discounted at 9.86% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5999 | $273.57 |
| Shareholders' equity | $33.47bn |
| Less goodwill | $4.87bn |
| Less other intangibles | $90.00m |
| Tangible equity | $28.51bn |
| Shares | 674.00m |
| Tangible book per share | $42.30 |
| Profit attributable to shareholders | $10.83bn |
| Return on tangible equity = profit ÷ tangible equity | 38.00% |
| Cost of equity (the discount rate) | 9.86% |
| Growth (the terminal rate) | 3% |
| Justified price to tangible book = (38.00% − 3%) ÷ (9.86% − 3%) | 5.11× |
| Value per share = multiple × tangible book per share | $215.95 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $273.57 |
| Tangible book | $215.95 |
($273.57 + $215.95) ÷ 2 = $244.76
Base value $244.76 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $260.29 and a 10% chance it is above $450.70 in a year; a 64% chance it is higher than today's $318.06, from 21.31% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.86% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $302.78 | $226.19 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $308.17 | $225.04 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $313.59 | $242.78 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $313.22 | $246.07 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $319.11 | $249.04 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $320.99 | $250.63 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $318.06 | $244.76 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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