We publish no single base value for AutoZone. Our valuation methods put it between $2,508.10 and $2,779.25 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $2,508.10 | -22.9% | free cash flow $1.82bn, growth 5.6% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.19%; stress floor $1,524.21 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $2,779.25 | -14.5% | earnings per share $169.37 valued at 19.44× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.37 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.21) |
| Peer beta | 1.12 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.52 (80% own, 20% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.68 (0.67 × 0.52 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.19% |
Free cash flow grows 5.60% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.82bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.60% | $1.92bn | 0.9243 | $1.77bn |
| Year 2 | 5.60% | $2.02bn | 0.8543 | $1.73bn |
| Year 3 | 5.60% | $2.14bn | 0.7897 | $1.69bn |
| Year 4 | 5.60% | $2.26bn | 0.7299 | $1.65bn |
| Year 5 | 5.60% | $2.38bn | 0.6746 | $1.61bn |
| Year 6 | 5.17% | $2.51bn | 0.6236 | $1.56bn |
| Year 7 | 4.73% | $2.63bn | 0.5764 | $1.51bn |
| Year 8 | 4.30% | $2.74bn | 0.5327 | $1.46bn |
| Year 9 | 3.87% | $2.84bn | 0.4924 | $1.40bn |
| Year 10 | 3.43% | $2.94bn | 0.4551 | $1.34bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.19% − 3%) | $58.40bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $26.58bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $15.72bn |
| Total present value | $42.30bn |
| Shares outstanding | 16.86m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $2,508.10 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.6% | Growth 5.6% | Growth 10.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.19% | $2,269.31 | — | $4,266.13 |
| 8.19% | $1,840.59 | $2,508.10 | $3,401.55 |
| 9.19% | $1,550.00 | $2,093.70 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.37 | 6.79% | — |
| Peer beta | 1.12 | 10.17% | $1,800.16 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.68 | 8.19% | $2,508.10 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $169.37 |
| Year 1 | 5.60% | $178.85 |
| Year 2 | 4.95% | $187.71 |
| Year 3 | 4.46% | $196.08 |
| Year 4 | 4.10% | $204.12 |
| Year 5 | 3.82% | $211.92 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $211.92 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 19.44× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $4,119.68 |
| Discounted at 8.19% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4823 | $2,779.25 |
We publish no single base value for AutoZone. Our valuation methods put it between $2,508.10 and $2,779.25 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $2,363.81 and a 10% chance it is above $4,852.80 in a year; a 56% chance it is higher than today's $3,252.19, from 27.92% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.19% a year.
At $3,252.19 the price implies free cash flow growing 9.9% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.6%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $2,792.03 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $2,939.85 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $3,120.59 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $3,200.76 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $3,169.82 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $3,216.35 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $3,252.19 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Aug 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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