We publish no single base value for Ball Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $79.28 and $96.72 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $96.72 | +49.0% | free cash flow $602.00m, growth 19.42% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.36%; stress floor — |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $79.28 | +22.1% | earnings per share $4.00 valued at 18.23× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.93 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.23) |
| Peer beta | 0.88 (median of 23 S&P 500 Materials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.91 (58% own, 42% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.94 (0.67 × 0.91 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.36% |
Free cash flow grows 19.42% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $602.00m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 19.42% | $718.91m | 0.9144 | $657.38m |
| Year 2 | 19.42% | $858.52m | 0.8361 | $717.85m |
| Year 3 | 19.42% | $1.03bn | 0.7646 | $783.88m |
| Year 4 | 19.42% | $1.22bn | 0.6991 | $855.99m |
| Year 5 | 19.42% | $1.46bn | 0.6393 | $934.74m |
| Year 6 | 16.68% | $1.71bn | 0.5846 | $997.33m |
| Year 7 | 13.95% | $1.94bn | 0.5346 | $1.04bn |
| Year 8 | 11.21% | $2.16bn | 0.4888 | $1.06bn |
| Year 9 | 8.47% | $2.35bn | 0.4470 | $1.05bn |
| Year 10 | 5.74% | $2.48bn | 0.4087 | $1.01bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.36% − 3%) | $40.16bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $16.41bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $9.10bn |
| Total present value | $25.52bn |
| Shares outstanding | 263.82m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $96.72 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 14.42% | Growth 19.42% | Growth 24.42% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.36% | $87.53 | $117.37 | $156.39 |
| 9.36% | $72.54 | $96.72 | $128.25 |
| 10.36% | $61.68 | $81.80 | $107.94 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.93 | 9.32% | $97.51 |
| Peer beta | 0.88 | 9.09% | $101.62 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.94 | 9.36% | $96.72 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $4.00 |
| Year 1 | 19.42% | $4.78 |
| Year 2 | 13.67% | $5.43 |
| Year 3 | 9.94% | $5.97 |
| Year 4 | 7.51% | $6.42 |
| Year 5 | 5.93% | $6.80 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $6.80 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 18.23× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $124.01 |
| Discounted at 9.36% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5642 | $79.28 |
We publish no single base value for Ball Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $79.28 and $96.72 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $47.13 and a 10% chance it is above $98.79 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $64.91, from 28.73% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.36% a year.
At $64.91 the price implies free cash flow growing 12.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 19.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $56.37 | $65.45 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $58.46 | $65.48 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $63.20 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $64.76 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $66.47 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $65.92 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $64.91 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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