We publish no single base value for Baxter International. Our valuation methods put it between $21.58 and $38.73 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $38.73 | +50.5% | free cash flow $1.00bn, growth 5% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.78%; stress floor $24.75 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $21.58 | -16.2% | earnings per share $2.10 valued at 12.84× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.68 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.28) |
| Peer beta | 0.78 (median of 15 S&P 500 Health Care Equipment companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.71 (66% own, 34% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.81 (0.67 × 0.71 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.78% |
Free cash flow grows 5.00% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.00bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.00% | $1.05bn | 0.9193 | $965.30m |
| Year 2 | 5.00% | $1.10bn | 0.8452 | $931.80m |
| Year 3 | 5.00% | $1.16bn | 0.7770 | $899.46m |
| Year 4 | 5.00% | $1.22bn | 0.7143 | $868.24m |
| Year 5 | 5.00% | $1.28bn | 0.6567 | $838.11m |
| Year 6 | 4.67% | $1.34bn | 0.6037 | $806.46m |
| Year 7 | 4.33% | $1.39bn | 0.5550 | $773.52m |
| Year 8 | 4.00% | $1.45bn | 0.5102 | $739.57m |
| Year 9 | 3.67% | $1.50bn | 0.4691 | $704.84m |
| Year 10 | 3.33% | $1.55bn | 0.4312 | $669.58m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.78% − 3%) | $27.69bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $11.94bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $8.20bn |
| Total present value | $20.14bn |
| Shares outstanding | 520.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $38.73 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0% | Growth 5% | Growth 10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.78% | $34.34 | $47.00 | $64.00 |
| 8.78% | $28.56 | $38.73 | — |
| 9.78% | $24.47 | $32.90 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.68 | 8.19% | $43.18 |
| Peer beta | 0.78 | 8.64% | $39.67 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.81 | 8.78% | $38.73 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.10 |
| Year 1 | 5.00% | $2.21 |
| Year 2 | 4.30% | $2.30 |
| Year 3 | 3.85% | $2.39 |
| Year 4 | 3.55% | $2.48 |
| Year 5 | 3.36% | $2.56 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $2.56 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 12.84× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $32.87 |
| Discounted at 8.78% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5228 | $21.58 |
We publish no single base value for Baxter International. Our valuation methods put it between $21.58 and $38.73 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $16.85 and a 10% chance it is above $41.29 in a year; a 53% chance it is higher than today's $25.74, from 34.8% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.78% a year.
At $25.74 the price implies free cash flow growing -1.7% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $23.49 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $24.35 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $25.28 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $25.30 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $23.00 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $25.79 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $25.74 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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