We publish no single base value for Best Buy. Our valuation methods put it between $46.86 and $109.72 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $109.72 | +6.1% | free cash flow $1.77bn, growth 1.45% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.12%; stress floor $82.70 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $46.86 | -54.7% | earnings per share $6.83 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 9.8×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.20 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.25) |
| Peer beta | 1.09 (median of 46 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.17 (74% own, 26% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.11 (0.67 × 1.17 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.12% |
Free cash flow grows 1.45% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.77bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 1.45% | $1.79bn | 0.9081 | $1.63bn |
| Year 2 | 1.45% | $1.82bn | 0.8246 | $1.50bn |
| Year 3 | 1.45% | $1.85bn | 0.7488 | $1.38bn |
| Year 4 | 1.45% | $1.87bn | 0.6799 | $1.27bn |
| Year 5 | 1.45% | $1.90bn | 0.6174 | $1.17bn |
| Year 6 | 1.71% | $1.93bn | 0.5606 | $1.08bn |
| Year 7 | 1.97% | $1.97bn | 0.5091 | $1.00bn |
| Year 8 | 2.23% | $2.01bn | 0.4623 | $931.17m |
| Year 9 | 2.48% | $2.06bn | 0.4198 | $866.55m |
| Year 10 | 2.74% | $2.12bn | 0.3812 | $808.45m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.12% − 3%) | $30.66bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $11.69bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $11.65bn |
| Total present value | $23.34bn |
| Shares outstanding | 212.70m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $109.72 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -3.55% | Growth 1.45% | Growth 6.45% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.12% | $94.01 | $127.30 | $171.96 |
| 10.12% | $81.79 | $109.72 | $147.01 |
| 11.12% | $72.54 | $96.46 | $128.25 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.20 | 10.53% | $103.93 |
| Peer beta | 1.09 | 10.04% | $111.10 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.11 | 10.12% | $109.72 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $6.83 |
| Year 1 | 1.45% | $6.93 |
| Year 2 | 1.92% | $7.06 |
| Year 3 | 2.24% | $7.22 |
| Year 4 | 2.47% | $7.40 |
| Year 5 | 2.63% | $7.59 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $7.59 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 9.8×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $75.90 |
| Discounted at 10.12% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6197 | $46.86 |
We publish no single base value for Best Buy. Our valuation methods put it between $46.86 and $109.72 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $59.77 and a 10% chance it is above $180.83 in a year; a 51% chance it is higher than today's $103.41, from 42.97% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.12% a year.
At $103.41 the price implies free cash flow growing 0.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 1.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $87.97 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $87.01 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $92.63 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $99.87 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $95.65 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $99.63 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $103.41 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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