We publish no single base value for Becton Dickinson. Our valuation methods put it between $96.67 and $100.33 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $96.67 | -55.2% | free cash flow $2.81bn, growth -10.5% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.61%; stress floor $97.69 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $100.33 | -53.5% | earnings per share $13.22 valued at 13.83× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.22 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.18) |
| Peer beta | 0.78 (median of 15 S&P 500 Health Care Equipment companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.33 (79% own, 21% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.55 (0.67 × 0.33 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.61% |
Free cash flow grows -10.50% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.81bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -10.50% | $2.51bn | 0.9293 | $2.34bn |
| Year 2 | -10.50% | $2.25bn | 0.8636 | $1.94bn |
| Year 3 | -10.50% | $2.01bn | 0.8026 | $1.62bn |
| Year 4 | -10.50% | $1.80bn | 0.7459 | $1.34bn |
| Year 5 | -10.50% | $1.61bn | 0.6932 | $1.12bn |
| Year 6 | -8.25% | $1.48bn | 0.6442 | $953.41m |
| Year 7 | -6.00% | $1.39bn | 0.5986 | $832.86m |
| Year 8 | -3.75% | $1.34bn | 0.5563 | $744.98m |
| Year 9 | -1.50% | $1.32bn | 0.5170 | $681.94m |
| Year 10 | 0.75% | $1.33bn | 0.4805 | $638.50m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.61% − 3%) | $29.72bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $14.28bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $12.21bn |
| Total present value | $26.49bn |
| Shares outstanding | 274.05m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $96.67 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -15.5% | Growth -10.5% | Growth -5.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.61% | $85.17 | $119.46 | $167.19 |
| 7.61% | $70.07 | $96.67 | $133.40 |
| 8.61% | $60.22 | $81.88 | $111.56 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.22 | 6.12% | $135.69 |
| Peer beta | 0.78 | 8.64% | $81.45 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.55 | 7.61% | $96.67 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $13.22 |
| Year 1 | -10.50% | $11.83 |
| Year 2 | -6.45% | $11.07 |
| Year 3 | -3.61% | $10.67 |
| Year 4 | -1.63% | $10.49 |
| Year 5 | -0.24% | $10.47 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $10.47 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 13.83× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $144.74 |
| Discounted at 7.61% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4427 | $100.33 |
We publish no single base value for Becton Dickinson. Our valuation methods put it between $96.67 and $100.33 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $164.73 and a 10% chance it is above $308.64 in a year; a 58% chance it is higher than today's $215.71, from 24.37% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.61% a year.
At $215.71 the price implies free cash flow growing 2.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -10.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $176.80 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $183.75 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $191.75 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $198.91 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $197.88 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $211.88 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $215.71 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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