We publish no single base value for Brown–Forman. Our valuation methods put it between $30.99 and $34.08 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $34.08 | +13.4% | free cash flow $925.00m, growth -1.4% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.61%; stress floor $25.19 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $30.99 | +3.2% | earnings per share $1.69 valued at 26× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.30 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.19) |
| Peer beta | 0.38 (median of 31 S&P 500 Consumer Staples companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.33 (66% own, 34% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.55 (0.67 × 0.33 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.61% |
Free cash flow grows -1.40% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $925.00m | — | — |
| Year 1 | -1.40% | $912.05m | 0.9293 | $847.59m |
| Year 2 | -1.40% | $899.28m | 0.8636 | $776.66m |
| Year 3 | -1.40% | $886.69m | 0.8026 | $711.66m |
| Year 4 | -1.40% | $874.28m | 0.7459 | $652.11m |
| Year 5 | -1.40% | $862.04m | 0.6932 | $597.54m |
| Year 6 | -0.67% | $856.29m | 0.6442 | $551.60m |
| Year 7 | 0.07% | $856.86m | 0.5986 | $512.96m |
| Year 8 | 0.80% | $863.72m | 0.5563 | $480.52m |
| Year 9 | 1.53% | $876.96m | 0.5170 | $453.41m |
| Year 10 | 2.27% | $896.84m | 0.4805 | $430.91m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.61% − 3%) | $20.06bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $9.64bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $6.01bn |
| Total present value | $15.65bn |
| Shares outstanding | 459.31m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $34.08 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -6.4% | Growth -1.4% | Growth 3.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.61% | $30.93 | $43.14 | $59.82 |
| 7.61% | $24.74 | $34.08 | $46.78 |
| 8.61% | $20.73 | $28.24 | $38.39 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.30 | 6.48% | $44.63 |
| Peer beta | 0.38 | 6.84% | $40.59 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.55 | 7.61% | $34.08 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.69 |
| Year 1 | -1.40% | $1.67 |
| Year 2 | -0.30% | $1.66 |
| Year 3 | 0.52% | $1.67 |
| Year 4 | 1.14% | $1.69 |
| Year 5 | 1.61% | $1.72 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $1.72 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 26× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $44.71 |
| Discounted at 7.61% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4427 | $30.99 |
We publish no single base value for Brown–Forman. Our valuation methods put it between $30.99 and $34.08 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $19.64 and a 10% chance it is above $47.33 in a year; a 52% chance it is higher than today's $30.04, from 34.14% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.61% a year.
At $30.04 the price implies free cash flow growing -3.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -1.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $26.16 | $36.38 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $26.39 | $36.96 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $28.88 | $33.76 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $29.41 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $28.71 | $35.53 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $30.58 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $30.04 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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