On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Booking Holdings is $136.14 a share, 15.5% below its $161.20 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $136.14 | -15.5% | free cash flow $9.24bn, growth -1.3% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.21%; stress floor $112.04 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 23.5x is 1.8x the 13.2x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.17 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.21) |
| Peer beta | 1.39 (median of 7 S&P 500 Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.19 (90% own, 10% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.13 (0.67 × 1.19 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.21% |
Free cash flow grows -1.30% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $9.24bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -1.30% | $9.12bn | 0.9073 | $8.27bn |
| Year 2 | -1.30% | $9.00bn | 0.8232 | $7.41bn |
| Year 3 | -1.30% | $8.88bn | 0.7469 | $6.63bn |
| Year 4 | -1.30% | $8.77bn | 0.6777 | $5.94bn |
| Year 5 | -1.30% | $8.65bn | 0.6149 | $5.32bn |
| Year 6 | -0.58% | $8.60bn | 0.5579 | $4.80bn |
| Year 7 | 0.13% | $8.61bn | 0.5062 | $4.36bn |
| Year 8 | 0.85% | $8.69bn | 0.4593 | $3.99bn |
| Year 9 | 1.57% | $8.82bn | 0.4167 | $3.68bn |
| Year 10 | 2.28% | $9.02bn | 0.3781 | $3.41bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.21% − 3%) | $128.82bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $48.71bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $53.81bn |
| Total present value | $102.52bn |
| Shares outstanding | 753.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $136.14 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -6.3% | Growth -1.3% | Growth 3.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.21% | $115.89 | $156.85 | $212.03 |
| 10.21% | $101.60 | $136.14 | $182.43 |
| 11.21% | $90.70 | $120.43 | $160.05 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.17 | 10.39% | $133.00 |
| Peer beta | 1.39 | 11.38% | $118.13 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.13 | 10.21% | $136.14 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $136.14 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $136.14
Base value $136.14 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $99.04 and a 10% chance it is above $273.65 in a year; a 52% chance it is higher than today's $161.20, from 39.45% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.21% a year.
At $161.20 the price implies free cash flow growing 1.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -1.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $159.02 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $160.34 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $163.45 | $87.15 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $155.83 | $213.82 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $148.13 | $213.82 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $160.66 | $141.02 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $161.20 | $136.14 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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