We publish no single base value for BlackRock. Our valuation methods put it between $713.69 and $1,128.26 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $713.69 | -41.3% | free cash flow $3.59bn, growth 19.1% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.84%; stress floor $326.25 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $1,128.26 | -7.3% | earnings per share $57.85 valued at 19.34× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.37 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.15) |
| Peer beta | 1.49 (median of 11 S&P 500 Asset Management & Custody Banks companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.40 (76% own, 24% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.27 (0.67 × 1.40 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.84% |
Free cash flow grows 19.10% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.59bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 19.10% | $4.28bn | 0.9022 | $3.86bn |
| Year 2 | 19.10% | $5.09bn | 0.8139 | $4.14bn |
| Year 3 | 19.10% | $6.06bn | 0.7343 | $4.45bn |
| Year 4 | 19.10% | $7.22bn | 0.6624 | $4.78bn |
| Year 5 | 19.10% | $8.60bn | 0.5976 | $5.14bn |
| Year 6 | 16.42% | $10.02bn | 0.5391 | $5.40bn |
| Year 7 | 13.73% | $11.39bn | 0.4864 | $5.54bn |
| Year 8 | 11.05% | $12.65bn | 0.4388 | $5.55bn |
| Year 9 | 8.37% | $13.71bn | 0.3959 | $5.43bn |
| Year 10 | 5.68% | $14.49bn | 0.3571 | $5.17bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.84% − 3%) | $190.20bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $67.93bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $49.47bn |
| Total present value | $117.40bn |
| Shares outstanding | 164.50m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $713.69 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 14.1% | Growth 19.1% | Growth 24.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.84% | $627.90 | $835.22 | $1,105.29 |
| 10.84% | $539.50 | $713.69 | $939.97 |
| 11.84% | $471.49 | $620.39 | $813.27 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.37 | 11.30% | $668.83 |
| Peer beta | 1.49 | 11.84% | $621.22 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.27 | 10.84% | $713.69 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $57.85 |
| Year 1 | 19.10% | $68.89 |
| Year 2 | 13.47% | $78.17 |
| Year 3 | 9.80% | $85.83 |
| Year 4 | 7.42% | $92.20 |
| Year 5 | 5.87% | $97.62 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $97.62 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 19.34× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $1,887.95 |
| Discounted at 10.84% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6733 | $1,128.26 |
We publish no single base value for BlackRock. Our valuation methods put it between $713.69 and $1,128.26 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $928.66 and a 10% chance it is above $1,837.55 in a year; a 61% chance it is higher than today's $1,216.61, from 26.49% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.84% a year.
At $1,216.61 the price implies free cash flow growing 28.9% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 19.1%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $1,059.63 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $1,082.39 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $1,134.38 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $1,118.25 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $1,147.54 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $1,178.87 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $1,216.61 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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