We publish no single base value for Bristol Myers Squibb. Our valuation methods put it between $54.25 and $115.67 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $115.67 | +85.6% | free cash flow $9.29bn, growth 4.16% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.33%; stress floor $69.59 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $54.25 | -12.9% | earnings per share $6.44 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 8.0×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.20 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.21) |
| Peer beta | 0.35 (median of 6 S&P 500 Pharmaceuticals companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.25 (72% own, 28% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.49 (0.67 × 0.25 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.33% |
Free cash flow grows 4.16% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $9.29bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 4.16% | $9.67bn | 0.9317 | $9.01bn |
| Year 2 | 4.16% | $10.07bn | 0.8680 | $8.74bn |
| Year 3 | 4.16% | $10.49bn | 0.8087 | $8.49bn |
| Year 4 | 4.16% | $10.93bn | 0.7534 | $8.24bn |
| Year 5 | 4.16% | $11.39bn | 0.7019 | $7.99bn |
| Year 6 | 3.97% | $11.84bn | 0.6540 | $7.74bn |
| Year 7 | 3.77% | $12.28bn | 0.6093 | $7.48bn |
| Year 8 | 3.58% | $12.72bn | 0.5676 | $7.22bn |
| Year 9 | 3.39% | $13.15bn | 0.5288 | $6.96bn |
| Year 10 | 3.19% | $13.57bn | 0.4927 | $6.69bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.33% − 3%) | $322.52bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $158.91bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $78.56bn |
| Total present value | $237.47bn |
| Shares outstanding | 2.05bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $115.67 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -0.84% | Growth 4.16% | Growth 9.16% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.33% | $108.43 | $150.68 | $207.87 |
| 7.33% | $84.09 | $115.67 | — |
| 8.34% | $68.84 | $93.79 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.20 | 6.03% | — |
| Peer beta | 0.35 | 6.71% | $135.52 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.49 | 7.33% | $115.67 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $6.44 |
| Year 1 | 4.16% | $6.71 |
| Year 2 | 3.87% | $6.97 |
| Year 3 | 3.65% | $7.22 |
| Year 4 | 3.49% | $7.48 |
| Year 5 | 3.37% | $7.73 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $7.73 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 8.0×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $77.29 |
| Discounted at 7.33% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4246 | $54.25 |
We publish no single base value for Bristol Myers Squibb. Our valuation methods put it between $54.25 and $115.67 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $44.80 and a 10% chance it is above $92.35 in a year; a 55% chance it is higher than today's $62.32, from 28.08% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.33% a year.
At $62.32 the price implies free cash flow growing -5.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 4.2%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $61.15 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $59.12 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $59.75 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $61.48 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $62.48 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $62.14 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $62.32 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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