We publish no single base value for BNY Mellon. Our valuation methods put it between $50.38 and $62.45 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $62.45 | -59.1% | free cash flow $7.14bn, growth -11.41% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.44%; stress floor $70.42 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $50.38 | -67.0% | earnings per share $9.43 valued at 11.87× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.02 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.15) |
| Peer beta | 1.49 (median of 11 S&P 500 Asset Management & Custody Banks companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.27 (46% own, 54% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.18 (0.67 × 1.27 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.44% |
Free cash flow grows -11.41% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $7.14bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -11.41% | $6.33bn | 0.9055 | $5.73bn |
| Year 2 | -11.41% | $5.61bn | 0.8199 | $4.60bn |
| Year 3 | -11.41% | $4.97bn | 0.7424 | $3.69bn |
| Year 4 | -11.41% | $4.40bn | 0.6722 | $2.96bn |
| Year 5 | -11.41% | $3.90bn | 0.6087 | $2.37bn |
| Year 6 | -9.01% | $3.55bn | 0.5511 | $1.95bn |
| Year 7 | -6.61% | $3.31bn | 0.4990 | $1.65bn |
| Year 8 | -4.20% | $3.17bn | 0.4518 | $1.43bn |
| Year 9 | -1.80% | $3.12bn | 0.4091 | $1.27bn |
| Year 10 | 0.60% | $3.13bn | 0.3705 | $1.16bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.44% − 3%) | $43.40bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $16.08bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $26.82bn |
| Total present value | $42.90bn |
| Shares outstanding | 686.91m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $62.45 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -16.41% | Growth -11.41% | Growth -6.41% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.44% | $52.19 | $70.13 | $94.58 |
| 10.44% | $47.04 | $62.45 | $83.31 |
| 11.44% | $43.04 | $56.53 | $74.65 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.02 | 9.72% | $67.76 |
| Peer beta | 1.49 | 11.84% | $54.54 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.18 | 10.44% | $62.45 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $9.43 |
| Year 1 | -11.41% | $8.35 |
| Year 2 | -7.81% | $7.70 |
| Year 3 | -5.11% | $7.31 |
| Year 4 | -3.08% | $7.08 |
| Year 5 | -1.56% | $6.97 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $6.97 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 11.87× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $82.78 |
| Discounted at 10.44% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6430 | $50.38 |
We publish no single base value for BNY Mellon. Our valuation methods put it between $50.38 and $62.45 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $127.55 and a 10% chance it is above $215.62 in a year; a 66% chance it is higher than today's $152.79, from 20.38% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.44% a year.
At $152.79 the price implies free cash flow growing 4.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -11.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $145.40 | $73.66 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $142.71 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $143.30 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $145.27 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $147.11 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $147.72 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $152.79 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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