On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Boston Scientific is $38.59 a share, 12.7% below its $44.20 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $38.59 | -12.7% | free cash flow $3.33bn, growth 1.4% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.55%; stress floor $27.39 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 28.0x is 2.0x the 13.9x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.60 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.19) |
| Peer beta | 0.78 (median of 15 S&P 500 Health Care Equipment companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.64 (80% own, 20% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.76 (0.67 × 0.64 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.55% |
Free cash flow grows 1.40% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.33bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 1.40% | $3.38bn | 0.9212 | $3.11bn |
| Year 2 | 1.40% | $3.42bn | 0.8487 | $2.91bn |
| Year 3 | 1.40% | $3.47bn | 0.7818 | $2.72bn |
| Year 4 | 1.40% | $3.52bn | 0.7202 | $2.54bn |
| Year 5 | 1.40% | $3.57bn | 0.6635 | $2.37bn |
| Year 6 | 1.67% | $3.63bn | 0.6113 | $2.22bn |
| Year 7 | 1.93% | $3.70bn | 0.5631 | $2.08bn |
| Year 8 | 2.20% | $3.78bn | 0.5188 | $1.96bn |
| Year 9 | 2.47% | $3.88bn | 0.4779 | $1.85bn |
| Year 10 | 2.73% | $3.98bn | 0.4403 | $1.75bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.55% − 3%) | $73.88bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $32.53bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $23.51bn |
| Total present value | $56.04bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.45bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $38.59 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -3.6% | Growth 1.4% | Growth 6.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.55% | $34.11 | $46.93 | — |
| 8.55% | $28.34 | $38.59 | $52.39 |
| 9.55% | $24.32 | $32.79 | $44.14 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.60 | 7.83% | $44.25 |
| Peer beta | 0.78 | 8.64% | $37.99 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.76 | 8.55% | $38.59 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $38.59 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $38.59
Base value $38.59 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $26.91 and a 10% chance it is above $73.51 in a year; a 51% chance it is higher than today's $44.20, from 39.01% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.55% a year.
At $44.20 the price implies free cash flow growing 3.6% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 1.4%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $42.60 | $81.59 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $42.73 | $81.59 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $44.39 | $81.59 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $45.69 | $81.59 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $41.98 | $43.51 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $42.75 | $40.48 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $44.20 | $38.59 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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