We publish no single base value for Cardinal Health. Our valuation methods put it between $160.69 and $474.44 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $474.44 | +70.6% | free cash flow $4.90bn, growth 5.5% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.32%; stress floor $291.49 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $160.69 | -42.2% | earnings per share $13.00 valued at 14.88× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.52 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.21) |
| Peer beta | 0.77 (median of 58 S&P 500 Health Care companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.57 (81% own, 19% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.71 (0.67 × 0.57 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.32% |
Free cash flow grows 5.50% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $4.90bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.50% | $5.17bn | 0.9231 | $4.77bn |
| Year 2 | 5.50% | $5.45bn | 0.8522 | $4.65bn |
| Year 3 | 5.50% | $5.75bn | 0.7867 | $4.53bn |
| Year 4 | 5.50% | $6.07bn | 0.7262 | $4.41bn |
| Year 5 | 5.50% | $6.41bn | 0.6704 | $4.29bn |
| Year 6 | 5.08% | $6.73bn | 0.6189 | $4.17bn |
| Year 7 | 4.67% | $7.05bn | 0.5713 | $4.03bn |
| Year 8 | 4.25% | $7.34bn | 0.5274 | $3.87bn |
| Year 9 | 3.83% | $7.63bn | 0.4869 | $3.71bn |
| Year 10 | 3.42% | $7.89bn | 0.4495 | $3.54bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.32% − 3%) | $152.55bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $68.57bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $41.98bn |
| Total present value | $110.54bn |
| Shares outstanding | 233.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $474.44 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.5% | Growth 5.5% | Growth 10.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.32% | $427.10 | — | $801.22 |
| 8.32% | $348.57 | $474.44 | $642.85 |
| 9.32% | $294.79 | $397.76 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.52 | 7.47% | — |
| Peer beta | 0.77 | 8.59% | $451.02 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.71 | 8.32% | $474.44 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $13.00 |
| Year 1 | 5.50% | $13.71 |
| Year 2 | 4.75% | $14.36 |
| Year 3 | 4.22% | $14.97 |
| Year 4 | 3.86% | $15.55 |
| Year 5 | 3.60% | $16.11 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $16.11 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 14.88× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $239.68 |
| Discounted at 8.32% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4916 | $160.69 |
We publish no single base value for Cardinal Health. Our valuation methods put it between $160.69 and $474.44 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $215.96 and a 10% chance it is above $398.30 in a year; a 59% chance it is higher than today's $278.14, from 23.76% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.32% a year.
At $278.14 the price implies free cash flow growing -3.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $228.30 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $237.57 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $254.06 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $249.57 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $250.48 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $271.72 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $278.14 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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