We publish no single base value for Carrier Global. Our valuation methods put it between $41.12 and $43.10 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $41.12 | -24.4% | free cash flow $2.35bn, growth 3.33% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.3%; stress floor $29.42 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $43.10 | -20.7% | earnings per share $2.86 valued at 21.04× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.32 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.21) |
| Peer beta | 1.18 (median of 6 S&P 500 Building Products companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.22 (30% own, 70% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.15 (0.67 × 1.22 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.30% |
Free cash flow grows 3.33% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.35bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 3.33% | $2.43bn | 0.9066 | $2.20bn |
| Year 2 | 3.33% | $2.51bn | 0.8219 | $2.06bn |
| Year 3 | 3.33% | $2.59bn | 0.7451 | $1.93bn |
| Year 4 | 3.33% | $2.68bn | 0.6755 | $1.81bn |
| Year 5 | 3.33% | $2.77bn | 0.6124 | $1.70bn |
| Year 6 | 3.27% | $2.86bn | 0.5552 | $1.59bn |
| Year 7 | 3.22% | $2.95bn | 0.5033 | $1.49bn |
| Year 8 | 3.17% | $3.05bn | 0.4563 | $1.39bn |
| Year 9 | 3.11% | $3.14bn | 0.4137 | $1.30bn |
| Year 10 | 3.06% | $3.24bn | 0.3750 | $1.21bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.30% − 3%) | $45.63bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $17.11bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $16.68bn |
| Total present value | $33.79bn |
| Shares outstanding | 821.80m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $41.12 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -1.67% | Growth 3.33% | Growth 8.33% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.30% | $35.29 | $47.67 | — |
| 10.30% | $30.71 | $41.12 | — |
| 11.30% | $27.22 | $36.15 | $47.98 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.32 | 11.07% | $37.21 |
| Peer beta | 1.18 | 10.44% | $40.37 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.15 | 10.30% | $41.12 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.86 |
| Year 1 | 3.33% | $2.96 |
| Year 2 | 3.23% | $3.05 |
| Year 3 | 3.16% | $3.15 |
| Year 4 | 3.11% | $3.25 |
| Year 5 | 3.08% | $3.35 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $3.35 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 21.04× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $70.39 |
| Discounted at 10.30% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6330 | $43.10 |
We publish no single base value for Carrier Global. Our valuation methods put it between $41.12 and $43.10 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $42.59 and a 10% chance it is above $80.01 in a year; a 62% chance it is higher than today's $54.37, from 24.48% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.3% a year.
At $54.37 the price implies free cash flow growing 8.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 3.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $55.12 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $55.56 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $55.00 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $56.24 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $53.63 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $52.38 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $54.37 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on CARR · Carrier Global company page · Call and put prices