We publish no single base value for Casey's. Our valuation methods put it between $533.75 and $680.98 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $680.98 | -3.6% | free cash flow $648.93m, growth 13.78% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.1%; stress floor $318.20 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $533.75 | -24.5% | earnings per share $21.34 valued at 24.06× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.58 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.21) |
| Peer beta | 0.36 (median of 31 S&P 500 Consumer Staples companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.50 (61% own, 39% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.66 (0.67 × 0.50 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.10% |
Free cash flow grows 13.78% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $648.93m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 13.78% | $738.35m | 0.9251 | $683.02m |
| Year 2 | 13.78% | $840.09m | 0.8558 | $718.91m |
| Year 3 | 13.78% | $955.86m | 0.7916 | $756.69m |
| Year 4 | 13.78% | $1.09bn | 0.7323 | $796.45m |
| Year 5 | 13.78% | $1.24bn | 0.6774 | $838.29m |
| Year 6 | 11.98% | $1.39bn | 0.6267 | $868.41m |
| Year 7 | 10.19% | $1.53bn | 0.5797 | $885.17m |
| Year 8 | 8.39% | $1.65bn | 0.5363 | $887.55m |
| Year 9 | 6.59% | $1.76bn | 0.4961 | $875.18m |
| Year 10 | 4.80% | $1.85bn | 0.4589 | $848.43m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.10% − 3%) | $37.34bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $17.13bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $8.16bn |
| Total present value | $25.29bn |
| Shares outstanding | 37.14m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $680.98 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 8.78% | Growth 13.78% | Growth 18.78% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.10% | — | $861.45 | $1,164.74 |
| 8.10% | — | $680.98 | $915.26 |
| 9.10% | — | $560.23 | $748.60 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.58 | 7.74% | $737.09 |
| Peer beta | 0.36 | 6.75% | $947.58 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.66 | 8.10% | $680.98 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $21.34 |
| Year 1 | 13.78% | $24.28 |
| Year 2 | 10.55% | $26.84 |
| Year 3 | 8.28% | $29.07 |
| Year 4 | 6.70% | $31.01 |
| Year 5 | 5.59% | $32.75 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $32.75 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 24.06× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $787.90 |
| Discounted at 8.10% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4761 | $533.75 |
We publish no single base value for Casey's. Our valuation methods put it between $533.75 and $680.98 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $400.11 and a 10% chance it is above $1,211.07 in a year; a 49% chance it is higher than today's $706.63, from 42.99% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.1% a year.
At $706.63 the price implies free cash flow growing 14.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 13.8%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $617.76 | $469.22 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $646.27 | $470.93 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $689.22 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $699.26 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $680.19 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $687.64 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $706.63 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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