On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Caterpillar Inc. is $332.20 a share, 45.1% below its $605.28 close; 0 of 2 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | the cash flow statement books the movement in a lending book as operating cash flow, so this is the group's funding position rather than this business's free cash flow, and no DCF can be built on it |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $430.74 | -28.8% | earnings per share $27.11 valued at 16.85× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: 'Construction Industries' matches no business kind in the house table, so it cannot be valued. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | $233.67 | -61.4% | tangible book $34.19 a share at 6.835× |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $27.11 |
| Year 1 | 17.30% | $31.80 |
| Year 2 | 11.58% | $35.48 |
| Year 3 | 8.15% | $38.38 |
| Year 4 | 6.09% | $40.71 |
| Year 5 | 4.85% | $42.69 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $42.69 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 16.85× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $719.30 |
| Discounted at 10.80% over 5 years: ÷ 1.6699 | $430.74 |
| Shareholders' equity | $21.32bn |
| Less goodwill | $5.32bn |
| Less other intangibles | $241.00m |
| Tangible equity | $15.76bn |
| Shares | 460.90m |
| Tangible book per share | $34.19 |
| Profit attributable to shareholders | $8.87bn |
| Return on tangible equity = profit ÷ tangible equity | 56.32% |
| Cost of equity (the discount rate) | 10.80% |
| Growth (the terminal rate) | 3% |
| Justified price to tangible book = (56.32% − 3%) ÷ (10.80% − 3%) | 6.84× |
| Value per share = multiple × tangible book per share | $233.67 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $430.74 |
| Tangible book | $233.67 |
($430.74 + $233.67) ÷ 2 = $332.20
Base value $332.20 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $352.41 and a 10% chance it is above $1,065.31 in a year; a 51% chance it is higher than today's $605.28, from 42.94% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.8% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $845.42 | $307.10 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $800.47 | $308.45 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $730.76 | $340.94 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $687.00 | $343.22 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $622.75 | $340.22 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $558.63 | $338.92 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $605.28 | $332.20 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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