We publish no single base value for Chubb Limited. Our valuation methods put it between $268.11 and $896.60 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $896.60 | +141.2% | free cash flow $17.81bn, growth 0.3% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.42%; stress floor $618.15 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $268.11 | -27.9% | earnings per share $29.11 valued at 12.23× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.29 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.16) |
| Peer beta | 0.22 (median of 7 S&P 500 Property & Casualty Insurance companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.26 (59% own, 41% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.51 (0.67 × 0.26 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.42% |
Free cash flow grows 0.30% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $17.81bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 0.30% | $17.86bn | 0.9309 | $16.63bn |
| Year 2 | 0.30% | $17.92bn | 0.8665 | $15.52bn |
| Year 3 | 0.30% | $17.97bn | 0.8066 | $14.49bn |
| Year 4 | 0.30% | $18.02bn | 0.7509 | $13.53bn |
| Year 5 | 0.30% | $18.08bn | 0.6990 | $12.64bn |
| Year 6 | 0.75% | $18.21bn | 0.6507 | $11.85bn |
| Year 7 | 1.20% | $18.43bn | 0.6057 | $11.16bn |
| Year 8 | 1.65% | $18.73bn | 0.5638 | $10.56bn |
| Year 9 | 2.10% | $19.13bn | 0.5249 | $10.04bn |
| Year 10 | 2.55% | $19.62bn | 0.4886 | $9.58bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.42% − 3%) | $456.60bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $223.09bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $126.02bn |
| Total present value | $349.11bn |
| Shares outstanding | 389.37m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $896.60 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -4.7% | Growth 0.3% | Growth 5.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.42% | $825.68 | $1,152.03 | — |
| 7.42% | $650.17 | $896.60 | $1,230.78 |
| 8.43% | $538.89 | $735.12 | $999.84 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.29 | 6.43% | $1,148.74 |
| Peer beta | 0.22 | 6.12% | $1,262.44 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.51 | 7.42% | $896.60 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $29.11 |
| Year 1 | 0.30% | $29.20 |
| Year 2 | 1.11% | $29.52 |
| Year 3 | 1.68% | $30.02 |
| Year 4 | 2.07% | $30.64 |
| Year 5 | 2.35% | $31.36 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $31.36 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 12.23× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $383.57 |
| Discounted at 7.42% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4306 | $268.11 |
We publish no single base value for Chubb Limited. Our valuation methods put it between $268.11 and $896.60 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $312.53 and a 10% chance it is above $495.38 in a year; a 63% chance it is higher than today's $371.76, from 17.88% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.42% a year.
At $371.76 the price implies free cash flow growing -13.3% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 0.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $330.89 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $341.20 | $293.18 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $359.79 | $301.46 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $355.11 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $364.12 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $365.02 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $371.76 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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