We publish no single base value for CBRE Group. Our valuation methods put it between $86.48 and $149.01 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $86.48 | -34.8% | free cash flow $938.00m, growth 12.7% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.77%; stress floor $45.60 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $149.01 | +12.4% | earnings per share $7.84 valued at 20.75× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: 'Building Operations & Experience' matches no business kind in the house table, so it cannot be valued. The rest are not published without it — a sum missing a part reads as a valuation and is simply wrong |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.24 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.21) |
| Peer beta | 0.89 (median of 29 S&P 500 Real Estate companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.04 (43% own, 57% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.03 (0.67 × 1.04 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.77% |
Free cash flow grows 12.70% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $938.00m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 12.70% | $1.06bn | 0.9110 | $963.08m |
| Year 2 | 12.70% | $1.19bn | 0.8300 | $988.83m |
| Year 3 | 12.70% | $1.34bn | 0.7562 | $1.02bn |
| Year 4 | 12.70% | $1.51bn | 0.6889 | $1.04bn |
| Year 5 | 12.70% | $1.71bn | 0.6276 | $1.07bn |
| Year 6 | 11.08% | $1.89bn | 0.5718 | $1.08bn |
| Year 7 | 9.47% | $2.07bn | 0.5209 | $1.08bn |
| Year 8 | 7.85% | $2.24bn | 0.4746 | $1.06bn |
| Year 9 | 6.23% | $2.38bn | 0.4323 | $1.03bn |
| Year 10 | 4.62% | $2.49bn | 0.3939 | $979.03m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.77% − 3%) | $37.84bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $14.91bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $10.31bn |
| Total present value | $25.22bn |
| Shares outstanding | 291.61m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $86.48 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 7.7% | Growth 12.7% | Growth 17.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.77% | — | $102.94 | $137.99 |
| 9.77% | $64.61 | $86.48 | $115.24 |
| 10.77% | $55.89 | — | $98.46 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.24 | 10.71% | — |
| Peer beta | 0.89 | 9.13% | $96.21 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.03 | 9.77% | $86.48 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $7.84 |
| Year 1 | 12.70% | $8.83 |
| Year 2 | 9.30% | $9.65 |
| Year 3 | 7.10% | $10.34 |
| Year 4 | 5.66% | $10.93 |
| Year 5 | 4.73% | $11.44 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $11.44 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 20.75× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $237.43 |
| Discounted at 9.77% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5934 | $149.01 |
We publish no single base value for CBRE Group. Our valuation methods put it between $86.48 and $149.01 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $84.23 and a 10% chance it is above $219.45 in a year; a 53% chance it is higher than today's $132.54, from 37.17% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.77% a year.
At $132.54 the price implies free cash flow growing 20.2% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 12.7%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $129.58 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $130.80 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $133.08 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $123.30 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $128.85 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $135.51 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $132.54 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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