On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Carnival Corporation is $25.13 a share, 14.3% below its $29.34 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $25.13 | -14.3% | free cash flow $3.18bn, growth 3.5% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 12.78%; stress floor $19.03 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: fewer than 12 quarters of usable earnings history, so there is no multiple this name has been shown to trade at. The forward PE is not a substitute — it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 2.48 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.40) |
| Peer beta | 1.26 (median of 7 S&P 500 Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 2.05 (65% own, 35% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.70 (0.67 × 2.05 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 12.78% |
Free cash flow grows 3.50% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.18bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 3.50% | $3.29bn | 0.8867 | $2.91bn |
| Year 2 | 3.50% | $3.40bn | 0.7862 | $2.67bn |
| Year 3 | 3.50% | $3.52bn | 0.6971 | $2.45bn |
| Year 4 | 3.50% | $3.64bn | 0.6181 | $2.25bn |
| Year 5 | 3.50% | $3.77bn | 0.5481 | $2.07bn |
| Year 6 | 3.42% | $3.90bn | 0.4860 | $1.90bn |
| Year 7 | 3.33% | $4.03bn | 0.4309 | $1.74bn |
| Year 8 | 3.25% | $4.16bn | 0.3821 | $1.59bn |
| Year 9 | 3.17% | $4.29bn | 0.3388 | $1.45bn |
| Year 10 | 3.08% | $4.43bn | 0.3004 | $1.33bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (12.78% − 3%) | $46.62bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $14.00bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $20.37bn |
| Total present value | $34.37bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.37bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $25.13 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -1.5% | Growth 3.5% | Growth 8.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.78% | $21.17 | $28.01 | $37.05 |
| 12.78% | $19.14 | $25.13 | $33.01 |
| 13.78% | $17.47 | $22.78 | $29.74 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 2.48 | 16.29% | $18.45 |
| Peer beta | 1.26 | 10.80% | $31.55 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.70 | 12.78% | $25.13 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $25.13 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $25.13
Base value $25.13 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $16.67 and a 10% chance it is above $53.80 in a year; a 52% chance it is higher than today's $29.34, from 45.48% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 12.78% a year.
At $29.34 the price implies free cash flow growing 6.3% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 3.5%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $25.76 | $20.71 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $26.35 | $20.38 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $25.90 | $26.09 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $26.11 | $26.33 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $28.83 | $25.64 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $29.58 | $25.83 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $29.34 | $25.13 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Aug 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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