We publish no single base value for Constellation Energy. Our valuation methods put it between $557.94 and $644.79 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $557.94 | +97.6% | free cash flow $1.34bn, growth 37.88% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.23%; stress floor $134.42 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $644.79 | +128.3% | earnings per share $12.41 valued at 30.76× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.12 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.37) |
| Peer beta | 0.47 (median of 14 S&P 500 Electric Utilities companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.53 (10% own, 90% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.69 (0.67 × 0.53 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.23% |
Free cash flow grows 37.88% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.34bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 37.88% | $1.84bn | 0.9239 | $1.70bn |
| Year 2 | 37.88% | $2.54bn | 0.8536 | $2.17bn |
| Year 3 | 37.88% | $3.50bn | 0.7887 | $2.76bn |
| Year 4 | 37.88% | $4.83bn | 0.7287 | $3.52bn |
| Year 5 | 37.88% | $6.66bn | 0.6732 | $4.49bn |
| Year 6 | 32.07% | $8.80bn | 0.6220 | $5.47bn |
| Year 7 | 26.25% | $11.11bn | 0.5747 | $6.38bn |
| Year 8 | 20.44% | $13.38bn | 0.5310 | $7.10bn |
| Year 9 | 14.63% | $15.34bn | 0.4906 | $7.52bn |
| Year 10 | 8.81% | $16.69bn | 0.4532 | $7.56bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.23% − 3%) | $328.35bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $148.82bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $48.69bn |
| Total present value | $197.51bn |
| Shares outstanding | 354.00m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $557.94 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 32.88% | Growth 37.88% | Growth 42.88% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.23% | $545.54 | $716.68 | $934.89 |
| 8.23% | $426.10 | $557.94 | $725.74 |
| 9.23% | $345.76 | $451.26 | $585.31 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.12 | 10.17% | $379.27 |
| Peer beta | 0.47 | 7.24% | $714.71 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.69 | 8.23% | $557.94 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $12.41 |
| Year 1 | 37.88% | $17.11 |
| Year 2 | 25.67% | $21.51 |
| Year 3 | 17.74% | $25.32 |
| Year 4 | 12.58% | $28.51 |
| Year 5 | 9.23% | $31.14 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $31.14 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 30.76× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $957.75 |
| Discounted at 8.23% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4854 | $644.79 |
We publish no single base value for Constellation Energy. Our valuation methods put it between $557.94 and $644.79 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $133.59 and a 10% chance it is above $525.75 in a year; a 46% chance it is higher than today's $282.40, from 53.18% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.23% a year.
At $282.40 the price implies free cash flow growing 25.5% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 37.9%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $257.49 | $301.79 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $298.07 | $347.44 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $271.37 | $223.48 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $253.45 | $466.14 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $262.38 | $223.48 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $249.95 | $223.48 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $282.40 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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