We publish no single base value for CF Industries. Our valuation methods put it between $145.03 and $419.64 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $419.64 | +235.9% | free cash flow $2.08bn, growth 12.1% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 8.82%; stress floor $215.40 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $145.03 | +16.1% | earnings per share $15.05 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 9.9×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.54 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.30) |
| Peer beta | 0.90 (median of 23 S&P 500 Materials companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.74 (46% own, 54% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.82 (0.67 × 0.74 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 8.82% |
Free cash flow grows 12.10% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $2.08bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 12.10% | $2.33bn | 0.9189 | $2.14bn |
| Year 2 | 12.10% | $2.62bn | 0.8445 | $2.21bn |
| Year 3 | 12.10% | $2.93bn | 0.7760 | $2.27bn |
| Year 4 | 12.10% | $3.29bn | 0.7131 | $2.34bn |
| Year 5 | 12.10% | $3.68bn | 0.6553 | $2.41bn |
| Year 6 | 10.58% | $4.07bn | 0.6022 | $2.45bn |
| Year 7 | 9.07% | $4.44bn | 0.5534 | $2.46bn |
| Year 8 | 7.55% | $4.78bn | 0.5085 | $2.43bn |
| Year 9 | 6.03% | $5.07bn | 0.4673 | $2.37bn |
| Year 10 | 4.52% | $5.30bn | 0.4295 | $2.27bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (8.82% − 3%) | $93.72bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $40.25bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $23.37bn |
| Total present value | $63.62bn |
| Shares outstanding | 151.60m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $419.64 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 7.1% | Growth 12.1% | Growth 17.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.82% | — | $513.92 | $693.40 |
| 8.82% | — | $419.64 | $562.71 |
| 9.82% | $263.94 | $353.29 | $470.91 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.54 | 7.56% | $545.28 |
| Peer beta | 0.90 | 9.18% | $393.24 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.82 | 8.82% | $419.64 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $15.05 |
| Year 1 | 12.10% | $16.87 |
| Year 2 | 9.37% | $18.45 |
| Year 3 | 7.46% | $19.83 |
| Year 4 | 6.12% | $21.04 |
| Year 5 | 5.18% | $22.13 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $22.13 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 9.9×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $221.31 |
| Discounted at 8.82% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5260 | $145.03 |
We publish no single base value for CF Industries. Our valuation methods put it between $145.03 and $419.64 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $80.32 and a 10% chance it is above $202.52 in a year; a 52% chance it is higher than today's $124.92, from 35.9% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 8.82% a year.
At $124.92 the price implies free cash flow growing -7.9% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 12.1%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $115.01 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $111.54 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $120.85 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $120.68 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $123.30 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $119.39 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $124.92 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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