On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Citizens Financial Group is $39.18 a share, 39.6% below its $64.86 close; 0 of 2 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | not used for banks and lenders: deposits and loans are the business, so free cash flow does not describe it; see tangible book |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $32.32 | -50.2% | earnings per share $5.30 valued at 10× (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 8.4×) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | $46.04 | -29.0% | tangible book $42.32 a share at 1.088× |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.30 |
| Year 1 | -3.09% | $5.13 |
| Year 2 | -1.57% | $5.05 |
| Year 3 | -0.43% | $5.03 |
| Year 4 | 0.43% | $5.05 |
| Year 5 | 1.07% | $5.11 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $5.11 |
| Exit P/E (the 10× floor; the stock's own median P/E is 8.4×) | 10× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $51.08 |
| Discounted at 9.59% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5804 | $32.32 |
| Shareholders' equity | $26.32bn |
| Less goodwill | $8.19bn |
| Less other intangibles | $115.00m |
| Tangible equity | $18.02bn |
| Shares | 425.66m |
| Tangible book per share | $42.32 |
| Profit attributable to shareholders | $1.83bn |
| Return on tangible equity = profit ÷ tangible equity | 10.16% |
| Cost of equity (the discount rate) | 9.59% |
| Growth (the terminal rate) | 3% |
| Justified price to tangible book = (10.16% − 3%) ÷ (9.59% − 3%) | 1.09× |
| Value per share = multiple × tangible book per share | $46.04 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $32.32 |
| Tangible book | $46.04 |
($32.32 + $46.04) ÷ 2 = $39.18
Base value $39.18 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $51.99 and a 10% chance it is above $92.82 in a year; a 62% chance it is higher than today's $64.86, from 22.5% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.59% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $64.33 | $33.44 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $63.57 | $32.91 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $63.36 | $39.33 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $65.14 | $39.74 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $63.81 | $40.03 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $63.24 | $40.34 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $64.86 | $39.18 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on CFG · Citizens Financial Group company page · Call and put prices