We publish no single base value for Church & Dwight. Our valuation methods put it between $79.78 and $81.86 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $81.86 | -26.7% | free cash flow $1.06bn, growth 1% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.92%; stress floor $56.91 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $79.78 | -28.6% | earnings per share $3.77 valued at 28.18× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.45 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.17) |
| Peer beta | 0.36 (median of 31 S&P 500 Consumer Staples companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.43 (72% own, 28% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.62 (0.67 × 0.43 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.92% |
Free cash flow grows 1.00% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $1.06bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 1.00% | $1.07bn | 0.9266 | $989.97m |
| Year 2 | 1.00% | $1.08bn | 0.8586 | $926.49m |
| Year 3 | 1.00% | $1.09bn | 0.7956 | $867.09m |
| Year 4 | 1.00% | $1.10bn | 0.7372 | $811.49m |
| Year 5 | 1.00% | $1.11bn | 0.6831 | $759.45m |
| Year 6 | 1.33% | $1.13bn | 0.6330 | $713.10m |
| Year 7 | 1.67% | $1.15bn | 0.5865 | $671.78m |
| Year 8 | 2.00% | $1.17bn | 0.5435 | $634.93m |
| Year 9 | 2.33% | $1.20bn | 0.5036 | $602.06m |
| Year 10 | 2.67% | $1.23bn | 0.4666 | $572.75m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.92% − 3%) | $25.70bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $11.99bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $7.55bn |
| Total present value | $19.54bn |
| Shares outstanding | 238.70m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $81.86 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -4% | Growth 1% | Growth 6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.92% | $73.83 | $102.34 | — |
| 7.92% | $59.71 | $81.86 | — |
| 8.92% | $50.32 | $68.28 | $92.42 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.45 | 7.15% | $96.64 |
| Peer beta | 0.36 | 6.75% | $106.91 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.62 | 7.92% | $81.86 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.77 |
| Year 1 | 1.00% | $3.81 |
| Year 2 | 1.60% | $3.87 |
| Year 3 | 2.02% | $3.95 |
| Year 4 | 2.31% | $4.04 |
| Year 5 | 2.52% | $4.14 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $4.14 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 28.18× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $116.79 |
| Discounted at 7.92% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4639 | $79.78 |
We publish no single base value for Church & Dwight. Our valuation methods put it between $79.78 and $81.86 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $88.94 and a 10% chance it is above $156.20 in a year; a 60% chance it is higher than today's $111.73, from 21.86% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.92% a year.
At $111.73 the price implies free cash flow growing 6.0% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 1.0%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $94.31 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $98.11 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $104.53 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $105.19 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $107.23 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $109.33 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $111.73 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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