We publish no single base value for Cigna. Our valuation methods put it between $288.01 and $801.03 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $801.03 | +170.4% | free cash flow $8.27bn, growth 5.6% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.74%; stress floor $473.23 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $288.01 | -2.8% | earnings per share $30.62 valued at 10.99× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.25 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.24) |
| Peer beta | 0.77 (median of 58 S&P 500 Health Care companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.38 (76% own, 24% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.58 (0.67 × 0.38 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.74% |
Free cash flow grows 5.60% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $8.27bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 5.60% | $8.73bn | 0.9282 | $8.10bn |
| Year 2 | 5.60% | $9.22bn | 0.8615 | $7.94bn |
| Year 3 | 5.60% | $9.73bn | 0.7996 | $7.78bn |
| Year 4 | 5.60% | $10.28bn | 0.7422 | $7.63bn |
| Year 5 | 5.60% | $10.85bn | 0.6888 | $7.48bn |
| Year 6 | 5.17% | $11.42bn | 0.6393 | $7.30bn |
| Year 7 | 4.73% | $11.96bn | 0.5934 | $7.09bn |
| Year 8 | 4.30% | $12.47bn | 0.5508 | $6.87bn |
| Year 9 | 3.87% | $12.95bn | 0.5112 | $6.62bn |
| Year 10 | 3.43% | $13.40bn | 0.4745 | $6.36bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.74% − 3%) | $291.11bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $138.13bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $73.17bn |
| Total present value | $211.30bn |
| Shares outstanding | 263.79m |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $801.03 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 0.6% | Growth 5.6% | Growth 10.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.74% | $738.44 | — | $1,399.31 |
| 7.74% | $585.43 | $801.03 | $1,090.16 |
| 8.74% | $485.62 | $658.51 | — |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.25 | 6.25% | — |
| Peer beta | 0.77 | 8.59% | $676.01 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.58 | 7.74% | $801.03 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $30.62 |
| Year 1 | 5.60% | $32.33 |
| Year 2 | 4.82% | $33.89 |
| Year 3 | 4.27% | $35.34 |
| Year 4 | 3.89% | $36.71 |
| Year 5 | 3.62% | $38.04 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $38.04 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 10.99× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $418.11 |
| Discounted at 7.74% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4517 | $288.01 |
We publish no single base value for Cigna. Our valuation methods put it between $288.01 and $801.03 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $222.95 and a 10% chance it is above $429.05 in a year; a 57% chance it is higher than today's $296.27, from 25.41% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.74% a year.
At $296.27 the price implies free cash flow growing -10.1% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 5.6%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $270.53 | $291.84 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $282.43 | $293.37 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $302.30 | $295.45 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $306.95 | $296.59 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $298.23 | $298.14 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $293.59 | $291.30 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $296.27 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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