On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Ciena is $434.92 a share, 47.9% above its $293.99 close; 1 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $434.92 | +47.9% | free cash flow $814.36m, growth 32.57% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 10.26%; plus net cash $17.86 a share; stress floor $146.81 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | no exit multiple: the five-year median of 46.7x is 1.6x the 28.5x this name trades at today (limit 1.5x) — the market has re-rated the name, so its own history prices a business it is no longer paid for. The forward PE is not a substitute: it is today's price divided by earnings, and an anchor built from it can only restate the price |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.32 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.41) |
| Peer beta | 1.07 (median of 5 S&P 500 Communications Equipment companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.21 (53% own, 47% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.14 (0.67 × 1.21 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 10.26% |
Free cash flow grows 32.57% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $814.36m | — | — |
| Year 1 | 32.57% | $1.08bn | 0.9069 | $979.14m |
| Year 2 | 32.57% | $1.43bn | 0.8226 | $1.18bn |
| Year 3 | 32.57% | $1.90bn | 0.7460 | $1.42bn |
| Year 4 | 32.57% | $2.52bn | 0.6766 | $1.70bn |
| Year 5 | 32.57% | $3.33bn | 0.6136 | $2.05bn |
| Year 6 | 27.64% | $4.26bn | 0.5565 | $2.37bn |
| Year 7 | 22.71% | $5.22bn | 0.5047 | $2.64bn |
| Year 8 | 17.78% | $6.15bn | 0.4578 | $2.82bn |
| Year 9 | 12.86% | $6.94bn | 0.4152 | $2.88bn |
| Year 10 | 7.93% | $7.49bn | 0.3765 | $2.82bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (10.26% − 3%) | $106.31bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $40.03bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $20.85bn |
| Total present value | $60.88bn |
| Shares outstanding | 145.97m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $417.06 |
| Plus net cash per share | $17.86 |
| Value per share | $434.92 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 27.57% | Growth 32.57% | Growth 37.57% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.26% | $398.39 | $517.73 | $670.44 |
| 10.26% | $336.55 | $434.92 | $560.55 |
| 11.26% | $290.18 | $372.90 | $478.33 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.32 | 11.07% | $383.44 |
| Peer beta | 1.07 | 9.95% | $458.33 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.14 | 10.26% | $434.92 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $434.92 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $434.92
Base value $434.92 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $62.31 and a 10% chance it is above $696.67 in a year; a 36% chance it is higher than today's $293.99, from 93.71% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 10.26% a year.
At $293.99 the price implies free cash flow growing 24.9% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 32.6%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $391.34 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $449.77 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $332.73 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $320.26 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $320.72 | $449.23 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $243.39 | $454.31 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $293.99 | $434.92 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 31 Jul 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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