We publish no single base value for Centene Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $41.45 and $154.45 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $154.45 | +119.8% | free cash flow $3.96bn, growth 0.2% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 9.45%; plus net cash $46.22 a share; stress floor $129.13 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $41.45 | -41.0% | earnings per share $5.28 valued at 11.47× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 1.06 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.38) |
| Peer beta | 0.77 (median of 58 S&P 500 Health Care companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.94 (59% own, 41% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.96 (0.67 × 0.94 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 9.45% |
Free cash flow grows 0.20% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.96bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 0.20% | $3.97bn | 0.9137 | $3.63bn |
| Year 2 | 0.20% | $3.98bn | 0.8348 | $3.32bn |
| Year 3 | 0.20% | $3.98bn | 0.7627 | $3.04bn |
| Year 4 | 0.20% | $3.99bn | 0.6968 | $2.78bn |
| Year 5 | 0.20% | $4.00bn | 0.6367 | $2.55bn |
| Year 6 | 0.67% | $4.03bn | 0.5817 | $2.34bn |
| Year 7 | 1.13% | $4.07bn | 0.5315 | $2.16bn |
| Year 8 | 1.60% | $4.14bn | 0.4856 | $2.01bn |
| Year 9 | 2.07% | $4.22bn | 0.4437 | $1.87bn |
| Year 10 | 2.53% | $4.33bn | 0.4054 | $1.76bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (9.45% − 3%) | $69.14bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $28.03bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $25.45bn |
| Total present value | $53.48bn |
| Shares outstanding | 494.14m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $108.23 |
| Plus net cash per share | $46.22 |
| Value per share | $154.45 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -4.8% | Growth 0.2% | Growth 5.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.45% | $139.67 | $173.66 | $219.53 |
| 9.45% | $126.39 | $154.45 | $192.12 |
| 10.45% | $116.62 | $140.37 | $172.10 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 1.06 | 9.90% | $147.61 |
| Peer beta | 0.77 | 8.59% | $170.45 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.96 | 9.45% | $154.45 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $5.28 |
| Year 1 | 0.20% | $5.29 |
| Year 2 | 1.04% | $5.35 |
| Year 3 | 1.63% | $5.44 |
| Year 4 | 2.04% | $5.55 |
| Year 5 | 2.33% | $5.68 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $5.68 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 11.47× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $65.10 |
| Discounted at 9.45% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5706 | $41.45 |
We publish no single base value for Centene Corporation. Our valuation methods put it between $41.45 and $154.45 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $42.22 and a 10% chance it is above $119.28 in a year; a 51% chance it is higher than today's $70.27, from 40.31% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.45% a year.
At $70.27 the price implies free cash flow growing -25.4% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 0.2%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $62.99 | — |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $65.36 | — |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $69.16 | — |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $70.17 | — |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $68.45 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $69.74 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $70.27 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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