On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Capital One is $172.21 a share, 11.0% below its $193.60 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | — | — | not used for banks and lenders: deposits and loans are the business, so free cash flow does not describe it; see tangible book |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $172.21 | -11.0% | earnings per share $21.62 valued at 10.17× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | 0.05x spot |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $21.62 |
| Year 1 | 6.20% | $22.96 |
| Year 2 | 5.08% | $24.13 |
| Year 3 | 4.35% | $25.18 |
| Year 4 | 3.88% | $26.16 |
| Year 5 | 3.57% | $27.09 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $27.09 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 10.17× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $275.52 |
| Discounted at 9.86% over 5 years: ÷ 1.5999 | $172.21 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $172.21 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $172.21
Base value $172.21 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $154.59 and a 10% chance it is above $279.08 in a year; a 62% chance it is higher than today's $193.60, from 22.93% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 9.86% a year.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $194.72 | $259.62 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $199.26 | $263.24 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $201.74 | $324.19 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $201.34 | $173.15 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $204.85 | $173.25 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $201.87 | $174.29 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $193.60 | $172.21 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
Run a full Desk Run on COF · Capital One company page · Call and put prices