On 12 Nov 2026 our base value for Coinbase is $29.26 a share, 77.6% below its $130.67 close; 0 of 1 valuation methods put it above the price.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $29.26 | -77.6% | free cash flow $3.85bn, growth -34.2% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 11.52%; plus net cash $6.72 a share; stress floor $52.66 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | — | — | the model values the equity at -$2.41 — a negative figure is not a low price, it is a projection of losses, and no share price follows from it |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 3.34 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.61) |
| Peer beta | 0.96 (median of 7 S&P 500 Financial Exchanges & Data companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 1.63 (28% own, 72% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 1.42 (0.67 × 1.63 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 11.52% |
Free cash flow grows -34.20% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $3.85bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | -34.20% | $2.53bn | 0.8967 | $2.27bn |
| Year 2 | -34.20% | $1.67bn | 0.8041 | $1.34bn |
| Year 3 | -34.20% | $1.10bn | 0.7210 | $790.96m |
| Year 4 | -34.20% | $721.84m | 0.6465 | $466.69m |
| Year 5 | -34.20% | $474.97m | 0.5797 | $275.36m |
| Year 6 | -28.00% | $341.98m | 0.5199 | $177.78m |
| Year 7 | -21.80% | $267.43m | 0.4662 | $124.66m |
| Year 8 | -15.60% | $225.71m | 0.4180 | $94.35m |
| Year 9 | -9.40% | $204.49m | 0.3748 | $76.65m |
| Year 10 | -3.20% | $197.95m | 0.3361 | $66.53m |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (11.52% − 3%) | $2.39bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $804.30m |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $5.69bn |
| Total present value | $6.49bn |
| Shares outstanding | 287.98m |
| Cash flows per share = total ÷ shares | $22.54 |
| Plus net cash per share | $6.72 |
| Value per share | $29.26 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth -39.2% | Growth -34.2% | Growth -29.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.52% | $25.45 | $30.39 | $37.02 |
| 11.52% | $24.71 | $29.26 | $35.27 |
| 12.52% | $24.09 | $28.30 | $33.82 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 3.34 | 20.16% | $23.84 |
| Peer beta | 0.96 | 9.45% | $31.90 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 1.42 | 11.52% | $29.26 |
The base value is the average of the methods kept in it:
| Method | Value |
|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $29.26 |
One method is kept, so the base value is its value: $29.26
Base value $29.26 a share
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $40.51 and a 10% chance it is above $291.41 in a year; a 41% chance it is higher than today's $130.67, from 76.59% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 11.52% a year.
At $130.67 the price implies free cash flow growing -1.7% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown -34.2%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $183.00 | $48.96 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $179.39 | $49.13 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $173.16 | $48.98 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $164.45 | $49.26 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $143.54 | $29.46 |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $134.76 | $29.53 |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $130.67 | $29.26 |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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