We publish no single base value for ConocoPhillips. Our valuation methods put it between $147.90 and $393.40 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
| Method | Value | vs price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted cash flow | $393.40 | +180.9% | free cash flow $11.11bn, growth 13.32% for 5 years, then fading to 3% over 5 more, discounted at 7.61%; stress floor $180.03 |
| Exit multiple (P/E) | $147.90 | +5.6% | earnings per share $11.85 valued at 12.16× (the stock's own median P/E) in 5 years, discounted back |
| Sum of the parts | — | — | no sum of the parts: this run holds no segment disclosure for the name |
| Price to sales | — | — | not reached: the cash-flow or earnings methods produced an anchor, so this fallback was not run |
| Tangible book | — | — | used only for lenders, where book value is the business |
| Price to FFO (REITs) | — | — | used only for REITs |
Each working is rebuilt by code from the valuation's own figures and checked against the published value.
The discount rate:
| Risk-free rate | 5.13% (10-year US Treasury yield) |
| Company's own beta | 0.17 (5 years of monthly returns against the S&P 500; standard error 0.27) |
| Peer beta | 0.43 (median of 8 S&P 500 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production companies) |
| Blend of own and peers | 0.33 (38% own, 62% peers, weighted by how precisely the company's own beta is measured) |
| Adjusted beta | 0.55 (0.67 × 0.33 + 0.33, pulled toward the market's 1.0) |
| Equity risk premium | 4.5% |
| Discount rate = risk-free + adjusted beta × premium | 7.61% |
Free cash flow grows 13.32% a year for 5 years, then fades in equal steps toward 3% over 5 more; each year is discounted by 1 ÷ (1 + rate)^year:
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $11.11bn | — | — |
| Year 1 | 13.32% | $12.59bn | 0.9293 | $11.70bn |
| Year 2 | 13.32% | $14.27bn | 0.8636 | $12.33bn |
| Year 3 | 13.32% | $16.17bn | 0.8026 | $12.98bn |
| Year 4 | 13.32% | $18.33bn | 0.7459 | $13.67bn |
| Year 5 | 13.32% | $20.77bn | 0.6932 | $14.40bn |
| Year 6 | 11.60% | $23.18bn | 0.6442 | $14.93bn |
| Year 7 | 9.88% | $25.47bn | 0.5986 | $15.25bn |
| Year 8 | 8.16% | $27.55bn | 0.5563 | $15.32bn |
| Year 9 | 6.44% | $29.32bn | 0.5170 | $15.16bn |
| Year 10 | 4.72% | $30.70bn | 0.4805 | $14.75bn |
| Terminal value = year-10 cash flow × (1 + 3%) ÷ (7.61% − 3%) | $686.74bn |
| Terminal value in today's money | $329.97bn |
| Present value of years 1–10 | $140.49bn |
| Total present value | $470.46bn |
| Shares outstanding | 1.20bn |
| Value per share = total ÷ shares | $393.40 |
How the DCF value moves with the discount rate and the starting growth (the middle cell is the published value):
| Discount rate | Growth 8.32% | Growth 13.32% | Growth 18.32% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.61% | — | $510.93 | $693.40 |
| 7.61% | — | $393.40 | $530.63 |
| 8.61% | — | $318.12 | $426.53 |
The same DCF at each beta, starting growth unchanged:
| Beta | Value | Discount rate | DCF value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company's own beta | 0.17 | 5.89% | $644.06 |
| Peer beta | 0.43 | 7.06% | $449.63 |
| Adjusted beta (used) | 0.55 | 7.61% | $393.40 |
Earnings per share grow on the same fading path as the DCF:
| Year | Growth | Earnings per share |
|---|---|---|
| Now | — | $11.85 |
| Year 1 | 13.32% | $13.43 |
| Year 2 | 9.71% | $14.73 |
| Year 3 | 7.36% | $15.81 |
| Year 4 | 5.83% | $16.74 |
| Year 5 | 4.84% | $17.55 |
| Earnings per share in year 5 | $17.55 |
| Exit P/E (the stock's own median P/E) | 12.16× |
| Value in 5 years = earnings × P/E | $213.37 |
| Discounted at 7.61% over 5 years: ÷ 1.4427 | $147.90 |
We publish no single base value for ConocoPhillips. Our valuation methods put it between $147.90 and $393.40 a share. The valuation code's reason: no point fair value: the two anchors behind it compound the same growth rate and differ only in how they end — a perpetuity at the terminal rate against a multiple on the final year — so the midpoint between them measures terminal treatment rather than what the business is worth. The published range is the same reading with the false precision removed: read it as the span the method supports, and treat neither edge as a point estimate.
One-year price simulation: a 10% chance the price is below $96.49 and a 10% chance it is above $214.01 in a year; a 54% chance it is higher than today's $140.06, from 30.92% volatility. The simulation assumes the price drifts up at our discount rate of 7.61% a year.
At $140.06 the price implies free cash flow growing -3.2% a year for five years and then fading toward 3% over five more; its revenue has grown 13.3%.
| Week | Price | Base value |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | $126.75 | $117.78 |
| 9 Oct 2026 | $134.10 | $118.46 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $146.51 | $127.20 |
| 23 Oct 2026 | $150.80 | $129.45 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $154.03 | — |
| 6 Nov 2026 | $136.27 | — |
| 12 Nov 2026 | $140.06 | — |
Data as of 12 Nov 2026; financials to 30 Sep 2026. Sources: company filings via EODHD, SEC EDGAR, US Treasury. How these values are computed. Not investment advice.
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